Russia's Baltic Policy After the Meltdown

1 For notable exceptions, see Sergei Medvedev, `Geopolitics and Beyond: The New Russian Policy Towards the Baltic States', pp. 235-269 in Mathias Jopp & Sven Arnswald, eds, The European Union and the Baltic States (Helsinki: Finnish Institute of International Affairs, 1998); Alexander Sergounin, `The Russia Dimension', pp. 15-72 in Hans Mouritzen, ed., Bordering Russia: Theory and Prospects for Europe's Baltic Rim (Aldershot: Ashgate Publishing, 1998); Dmitry Trenin, Baltic Chance: The Baltic States, Russia, and the West in the Emerging Greater Europe (Moscow: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1997).

2 Medvedev (see note 1 above), p. 236.

3 In April 1998, Yuriy Luzhkov, Mayor of Moscow and leading contender for the 2000 Russian presidential elections, accused Latvia of `pursuing a consistent policy of genocide', compared Latvia's democratically elected government to Pol Pot's regime, and called for `all possible measures... except force' against Latvia. Fred Hiatt, `Perils of Disengagement', Moscow Times, 11 April 1998.

4 Graham Smith, The Nationalities Question in the Post-Soviet States, 2nd edn (London & New York: Longman, 1996), p. 501.

5 Andrus Park, `Ethnicity and Independence: The Case of Estonia in a Comparative Perspective', Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 46, no. 1, 1994, pp. 69-87; Sergounin (see note 1 above), pp. 42-50.

6 Ronald D. Asmus & Robert C. Nurick, `NATO Enlargement and the Baltic States', Survival, vol. 38, no. 2, Summer 1996, pp. 121-142. For further details, see Eitvydas Bajarunas, Mare Haab & Ilmars Viksne, `The Baltic States: Security and Defence After Independence', Chaillot Papers, no. 19, pp. 1-58, Institute for Security Studies of the Western European Union, Paris, June 1995; Olav F. Knudsen, `Co-operative Security in the Baltic Sea Region', Chaillot Papers, no. 33, Institute for Security Studies of the Western European Union, Paris, November 1998.

7 `Yeltsin's press service releases long-term policy guidelines on the Baltic states', BBC Summary of World Broadcasts (SWB), SU/2842 B/10, 13 February 1997; Graeme P. Herd, `Baltic Security Politics', Security Dialogue, vol. 28, no. 2, June 1997, pp. 252-253; Dmitry Trenin, `Russia's Baltic Concept, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 11 March 1997, p. 7. For an analysis of the Russian institutional decisionmaking implications, see Medvedev (note 1 above), p. 247.

8 As the EU insists that the fair treatment of minorities is a condition for EU integration (1993 `Copenhagen Criteria'), these policy guidelines also influenced the process of EU integration within the region.

9 The creation of the Danish-German-Polish Corps has been criticized by the Russian Ministries of Defence and Foreign Affairs as an attempt to circumvent the Founding Act - it is perceived to facilitate de facto forward positioning of NATO military infrastructure. Arkady Moshes, `Turn of the Century, Russia Looks at the Baltic Sea Region', DUPI Working Papers, no. 12, 1998, pp. 16-17.

10 Its situation would be a paradoxical mirror of West Berlin during the Cold War.

11 `The Baltic States Search for Security', Strategic Comments, vol. 3, no. 4, 1997.

12 Medvedev (see note 1 above), p. 245; Moshes (see note 9 above), pp. 13-15.

13 SWB, SU/3459 S1/3, 15 February 1999, ITAR-TASS, Moscow, 10 February.

14 SWB, SU/3475 S1/1, 5 March 1999, ITAR-TASS, Moscow, 2 March 1999.

15 Medvedev (see note 1 above), p. 240.

16 Lilia Shevtsova provided an excellent overview of the Russian political environment following the second-stage privatization in 1996. See Yeltsin's Russia: Challenges and Constraints (Moscow: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1997).

17 Moshes (see note 9 above), pp. 2-6.

18 Vladislav A. Vershinin, `Russia's National Interest in the Baltic Region', in Talavs Jundzis, ed., The Baltic States at Historical Crossroads (Riga: Academy of Sciences, 1998), pp. 519-539.

19 Medvedev (see note 1 above), p. 254.

20 SWB, SUW/0576, WF/2, 19 February 1999, ITAR-TASS, Moscow, 10 February 1999. LUKoil is also examining the possibility of acquiring a 33% stake in Mazeiku Nafta oil refinery in Lituania, which receives Russian crude oil from Polotsk (Belarus) and exports its products through the Klaipeda and Butinge oil terminals. SWB, SUW/0576 WF2, 19 February 1999, Lithuania Radio, Vilnius, 8 February 1999.

21 He rather pointedly remarked: `The Ministry of Fuel and Energy is not a branch of Menatep, LUKoil, Gasprom or United Energy Systems of Russia. It is an impersonal state body, and this should be taken into account in recruiting personnel.' ITAR-TASS, Moscow, 19 February 1999.

22 SWB, SUW/0563 WA/13, 13 November 1998, Kommersant, Moscow, 4 November 1998.

23 Robert Jansson, ed., Hard and Soft Security in the Baltic Sea Region (Stockholm: Olof Palme International Center, 1998); Moshes (see note 9 above), pp. 6-8.

24 This is the third such meeting since the PCA was first signed. See `A Northern Dimension for the Policies of the Union', Communication from the Commission, Brussels, 25 November 1998, COM(1998), 589 final; Peter Stenlund, `Policies for the Northern Dimension', presentation at the UACES Northern Dimension Workshop, National Liberal Club, London, 5 February 1999.

25 SWB, SU/3463 B/1, 19 February 1999, Interfax, Moscow, 18 February 1999. There are six international border crossings between the Russian Federation and Finland, where all the usual formalities (passports, visa) apply. Besides, there are 15-20 crossings with streamlined procedures (special documents are accepted), for instance, for logging trucks. The Finnish side has prepared three streamlined crossings for operating with standard international procedures, but on the Russian side there are delays. The author is grateful to Unto Vesa for clarifications.

26 Trenin (see note 1 above), p. 37; Igor Leshoukov, `Beyond Satisfaction: Russia's Perspectives on European Integration', Centre for European Integration Studies, Discussion Paper C26, 1998, pp. 1-32.

27 Discussions arising from UACES meeting, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London, 9 April 1999. The relationship between the ND and the CSR still has to be clarified.

28 SWB, SU/3457 B/22, 12 February 1999, ITAR-TASS, Moscow, 10 February 1999.

29 SWB, SU/3457 B/2, 12 February 1999, NTV, Moscow, 10 February 1999.

30 SWB, SU/3330 B/1, 12 September 1998, Interfax, Moscow, 11 September 1998.

31 SWB, SUW/3577 WA/4, 26 February 1999, Interfax, Moscow, 19 February 1999.

32 Discussion led by Peter Lynch, US Consul General, St. Petersburg, `Security and Inter-dependence in Northeastern Europe; Consolidating Regional Networks', workshop, Novgorod, 19-20 March 1999.

33 SWB, SU/3443 B/5, 27 January 1999, Federal News Service, Moscow, 26 January 1999.

34 Alexander Sergounin, The Process of Regionalisation and the Future of the Russian Federation, COPRI Working Paper 9, 1999; Nikolai Fomin, Head of Section of European Cooperation Department, Russian Foreign Ministry, workshop, Novgorod, 19-20 March 1999.

35 This association involves eight subjects of the Federation: St. Petersburg, Republic of Karelia, Arkhangelsk, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, Murmansk, Novgorod and Pskov oblast.

36 SWB, SU/3467 B/5, 24 February 1999, ITAR-TASS, Moscow, 22 February 1999.

37 `Kaliningrad Governor Denies Charge of Separatism', Tribuna, Moscow, 18 February 1999.

38 SWB, SU/3467 B/6, 24 February 1999, NTV, Moscow, 22 February 1999.

39 Vladimir Yakovlev, the Governor of St. Petersburg, has stated that $1 billion would be needed to finalize several environmental protection projects. SWB, SU/3466 B/2, 23 February 1999, ITAR-TASS, Moscow, 21 February 1999.

40 Igor Korolkov, `All the Governor's Men: They Have Turned the Region into a Particular Zone of Risk', Izvestiya, 29 August 1998.

41 SWB, SU/3460 E/1, 16 February 1999, Lithuanian Radio, Vilnius, 11 February 1999.

42 SWB, SU/3438 B/9, 21 January 1999, Interfax, Moscow, 19 January 1999.

43 SWB, SUW/0576 WF/2, 19 February 1999, Lithuanian Radio, Vilnius, 12 February 1999.