Is Russia Returning to the Middle East?

1 Interfax, 23 September 1997; ITAR-TASS, 24 September 1997. See also interview with Mubarak in Vitaly Tretyakov, `Hosni Mubarak: `Russia Must Return to the Middle East”, Nezavisimaya gazeta, 23 September 1997 (in Russian).

2 See, for example, Primakov's statements in Latin America, in Viktor Sokolov, `Moscow's Constructive Approaches to Foreign Policy', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 3 December 1997 (in Russian); and at a news conference in Cairo in ITAR-TASS, 31 October 1997.

3 For the formal Russian stance in relation to support for Iraq in the lifting of sanctions, see the Russian-Iraqi joint statement in ITAR-TASS, 20 November 1997.

4 A good example of this can be seen in an article written by Aleksei Arbatov, arms control specialist and liberal-oriented Duma member, `Foreign Policy Consensus in Russia', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 14 March 1997 (in Russian). Even the Russian Association of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation advances similar views, see `Discussions about NATO: Moscow's Arguments are Gaining More Weight', International Affairs (Moscow), vol. 42, no. 3, 1996.

5 Arbatov, `Foreign Policy Consensus', makes this linkage explicit. See also the hostile response in Moscow to the visit of the NATO Secretary-General, Javier Solana, to the Caucasus as reported in Ilya Bulavinov, `Javier Solana's March Across Russia's Rear', Kommersant-Daily, 14 February 1997 (in Russian).

6 In an important statement about US policy towards the Caucasus and Central Asia, US Deputy Secretary of State, Strobe Talbott, formally disavowed any desire for a return to the `Great Game' but also made clear that Russia would only benefit if it was one of the `responsible players' in the region. See Strobe Talbott, `The Great Game is Over: Personal View', Financial Times, 1 September 1997.

7 As President Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan has recounted, this almost led the Central Asian states to establish a rival Central Asian union at this time. See N. Zhelenova, `Politicians Answer for Everything', Argumenty i fakty, no. 2, January 1993 (in Russian).

8 Andrei Kozyrev, `Transfiguration of Kafkaesque Metamorphosis?', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 20 August 1992 (in Russian).

9 Abridged version to be found in Nezavisimaya gazeta, 29 April 1993.

10 For example, Sergei Yastrzhembskii, the Presidential Spokesman, was quoted as saying at the Russia-USA Helsinki summit in March 1997: `If NATO expansion is going to continue [...] Russia will be confronted with a need to reconsider its foreign-policy priorities. Our relations with China, India and [...] Iran are developing well', in Vasily Pakin, `Cooperation Behind Closed Doors', Kommersant-Daily, 12 April 1997 (in Russian). For Primakov's assertion of a lack of a connection, see Marina Kalashnikova, `The Oil-Based Future of Russian-Iraqi Friendship', Kommersant-Daily, 6 March 1997 (in Russian).

11 As noted during an interview with Deputy Foreign Minister, Viktor Posavalyuk in Leonid Galkin, `We Have Become Mature Partners', Moskovskie Novosti, No. 23, 9-16 June 1996 (in Russian).

12 Irina Denisova, `The World Opposes War', Rossiiskaya gazeta, 21 November 1997.

13 ITAR-TASS, 17 December 1997 (in Russian).

14 Quoted in John Lewis Gaddis, `International Relations and the End of the Cold War', International Security, vol. 17, no.3, 1992/93, pp. 5-58, on p. 53.

15 This debate, with its historical antecedents, is well covered in Iver B. Neumann, Russia and the Idea of Europe: a Study in Identity and International Relations (London: Routledge, 1996), pp. 179-193.

16 Interfax, 22 December 1996.

17 Interfax, 1 March 1998.

18 See Laura Silber, `Russia Presses Advantage on Iraq', Financial Times, 22 November 1998; Valeria Sychova, `Iraq Prepares for War but Hopes for Peace', Segodnya, 11 November 1997 (in Russian).

19 One Russian expert noted that the key posts in the UNSCOM are held by Americans and that overall 600 Americans have worked in it. See Leonid Gankin, `The CIA is Planning the Partition of Iraq', Kommersant-Daily, 18 February 1998 (in Russian).

20 For figures and projections on Russian-Iranian trade, see `Russia Intends Drastically to Increase Delivery of Weapons to Iran' Kommersant-Daily, 29 November 1997 (in Russian). For trade figures on Turkey, see Vadim Markushin, `Chernomyrdin's Visit is Successful', Obshchaya gazeta, No. 50, 18-24 December 1997 (in Russian).

21 Marina Kalashnikova, `Iran is our Friend', Kommersant-Daily, 27 January 1998 (in Russian). It should be noted that the Israeli government remains unconvinced by these Russian claims and continues to put pressure on the United States to impose sanctions on Russian firms engaged in trade with Iran.

22 For Surukhanov's argument, see Segodnya, 6 June 1997.

23 In his visit to Moscow in March 1997, Netanyahu stated that `Israel will seek to establish with Russia relations that are as close as Israel's ties with the United States', as reported in Izvestiya, 13 March 1997 (in Russian).

24 The degree of Russian opposition was noted in Viktor Belikov & Viktor Litovkin, `Russian Arms Business Will Grow in Israel', Izvestiya, 20 June 1996 (in Russian). The point was the first major Russian-Israeli deal on the A-50 early warning aircraft.

25 As reported in Leonid Galkin, `Primakov versus Netanyahu', Kommersant-Daily, 28 October 1997 (in Russian).

26 Ibid.

27 Kommersant-Daily, 5 November 1996.

28 Maksim Yusin, `Yevgenii Primakov's “Shuttle Diplomacy” ', Izvestiya, 29 October 1997 (in Russian).

29 Douglas Davis, `Russia Returning to Syria to Aid Military Expansion', Jewish Telegraphic Agency, 15 June 1998.