To Zero or Not to Zero: A US Perspective on Nuclear Disarmament

1 David Omand, `Nuclear Deterrence in a Changing World: The View from a UK Perspective', RUSI Journal, June 1996, p. 16.

2 Michael R. Gordon, `Despite Cold War's End, Russia Keeps Building a Secret Complex', New York Times, 16 April 1996, p. 1.

3 Bill Gertz, `US Officials Suspect Russia Staged Nuclear Test This Year', Washington Times, 7 March 1996, p. 3; Bill Gertz, `Perry Cites Evidence of Russian Nuke Test', Washington Times, 8 March 1996, p. A8.

4 Conversation between Kathleen C. Bailey and General Evgeny Maslin, 4 June 1996.

5 Ann Devroy & R. Jeffrey Smith, `US, Russia Pledge New Partnership', Washington Post, 2 February 1992, p. 1.

6 Pasechnik appeared on the BBC program Newsnight. The information was also reported by Bill Gertz, `Russia Has Biological Weapons, Defector Says', Washington Times, 22 January 1993, p. A9.

7 Vil Mirzayanov & Lev Fyodorov, `A Poisoned Policy', Moscow News, 20 September 1992. After this revelation, Mirzayanov provided details on the new nerve agent Substance A-230 and a new, ultra-lethal class of chemical agents called Novichok. See Oleg Vishnyakov, `Interview with Vil Mirzayanov and Lev Fedorov', Novoye Vremya, no. 44, 27 October 1992, pp. 4-9, as translated in FBIS-SOV-92-213, 3 November 1992, p. 3.

8 Publicly available data on the size of the Chinese arsenal vary vastly. Some estimates exceed 1,200 warheads. See, for example, Chao Yun-Shan, `Communist China's Nuclear Might: How Many Bombs?', Pai Hsing (Hong Kong), 1 August 1992, pp. 26-31.

9 John Fialka, `US Fears China's Success in Skimming Cream of Weapons Experts from Russia', Wall Street Journal, 14 October 1993, p. 12.

10 Patrick E. Tyler, `China Upgrades Nuclear Arsenal As It Re-examines Guns vs Butter', New York Times, 26 October 1994, p. A1.

11 These data were released by Senator Larry Pressler. See Bill Gertz & Martin Sieff, `China's Weapons Plan Threatens US, Senator Says', Washington Times, 5 May 1994, p. 12.

12 Barbara Crossette, `India Is Pressed on Atom Project', New York Times 12 February 1992, p. 12.

13 Mark Hewish, `India Develops Its Own Cruise Missile', New Scientist, 4 August 1983, p. 327.

14 Moscow supplied guidance equipment from SS-N-21 nuclear-tipped, submarine-launched ballistic missiles that were scrapped under an arms control agreement with Washington. See R. Jeffrey Smith, `Iraq Accused of Hiding Prohibited Weapons', Washington Post, 12 October 1996, p. 1.

15 United Nations Security Council document S/1995/864, 11 October 1995.

16 Ibid., para. 42, p. 15.

17 Pak Chae-pom, Seoul Sinmum, 11 September 1995, p. 3, as translated in FBIS-EAS-95-175 of same date. Former US CIA Director James Woolsey testified to the US Congress that the Taepodong 2 would be able to reach the United States. See Martin Sieff, `Japan, S. Korea Join Missile Race with N. Korea', Washington Times, 24 March 1994, p. 12.

18 North Korea has worked on a variety of biological agents, including anthrax, cholera, plague, and smallpox. See Yvgeny Primakov, `Russian Intelligence Report on Proliferation', JPRS Report (translation), 24 February 1993, p. 62.

19 This pledge, referred to as a negative security assurance, has been made in coordination with the other four declared nuclear-weapons states. It was reiterated in advance of the 1995 Extension Conference of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. See Paul Bedard & Gus Constantine, `US Vows No Nuke Attacks against Non-Nuclear Nations', Washington Times, 6 April 1995, p. A3.

20 When asked whether potential US responses to a chemical attack might include nuclear weapons, Secretary of Defense William Perry responded, `The whole range would be considered, that is correct.' See Martin Sieff, `Devastating Reply to Gas Attack Vowed', Washington Times, 29 March 1996, p. A6. Subsequent testimony by Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Walter Slocombe stated that the US nuclear deterrent is pertinent to all weapons-of-mass-destruction threats. See his `Statement before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on International Security, Proliferation, and Federal Services', 12 February 1997.

21 Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz told UN Special Commission on Iraq Ambassador Rolf Ekeus that Iraq did not use chemical or biological weapons because Secretary of State James Baker had delivered a threat on 9 January 1991 that any use of unconventional warfare would provoke devastating response. Aziz conveyed the message to Saddam Hussein. The Iraqi leadership, according to Aziz, interpreted the threat as being one of nuclear retaliation. R. Jeffrey Smith, `UN Says Iraqis Prepared Germ Weapons in Gulf War', Washington Post, 26 August 1995.

22 William J. Broad, `Russian Says Soviet Atom Arsenal Was Larger Than West Estimated', New York Times, 26 September 1993, p. 1.

23 Sidney Drell et al., Verification of Dismantlement of Nuclear Warheads and Controls on Nuclear Materials, JASON Study for the US Department of Defense, Mitre Corporation document JSR-92-331, 12 January 1993, p. 54.

24 The fuel must be reprocessed, Russian officials say, because its aluminum cladding does not withstand long-term storage safely and there are space limitations for fuel storage.

25 Drell et al., note 23, p. 77.