Deterrence and Middle East Stability: An Israeli Perspective

1 Abdulhay Sayed, `The Future of the Israeli Nuclear Force and the Middle East Peace Process', in this issue.

2 Shimon Peres, The New Middle East (Hebrew) (Tel Aviv: Steimatzki, 1993), pp. 12-14.

3 In September 1996, Egypt mounted the largest exercises (code-named Badr-96) held since the 1973 war, including a simulated crossing of the Suez Canal, while Syria was moving major elements of its forces in Lebanon and the Golan Heights.

4 For a detailed discussion, see Yair Evron, Israel's Nuclear Dilemma (London: Routledge, 1994).

5 Zaki Shalom, `From a “Low Profile” Policy to “A Steam-roller Strategy”: The Kennedy Administration and Its Policy with Respect to Israeli Nuclear Activities: 1962-1963' (Hebrew), Iyunim B'tkumat Yisrael (HaMercaz Lemoreshet Ben Gurion), no. 5, 1996.

6 Asher Arian, `Israel and the Peace Process: Security and Political Attitudes in 1993', Memorandum, no. 39, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University, February 1993, p. 12.

7 Address by the Foreign Minister of Israel, Mr. Shimon Peres, at the Signing Ceremony of the Chemical Weapons Convention Treaty, Paris, 13 January 1993 (Foreign Ministry, Jerusalem).

8 `Egypt Turns Up the Heat on Israeli Accession to the NPT', Nuclear Proliferation News, no. 18, 17 February 1995 (citing Reuters news reports, 1 and 2 February 1995).

9 Comments on NPT by Israeli Foreign Minister, press conference with Shimon Peres, Jerusalem, 2 March 1995 (Israel Information Service, Information Division, Foreign Ministry, Jerusalem).

10 Aluf Benn, `Barak: Nuclear Policy Has Not and Will Not Change', Haaretz, 31 December 1995, p. 10a.

11 Resolution on the Middle East, `Indefinite Extension of the Non-Proliferation Treaty: Risks and Reckonings', Acronym, no. 7 (September 1995), pp. 76-77.

12 Shlomo Shamir, `The UN Approves Call for Israel to Join NPT', Haaretz, 18 November 1994, p. 4a.

13 United States Information Agency Near East/South Asia English Washington File, transcript of briefing from Acting State Department Spokesman Glyn Davies, Tuesday, 25 June 1996.

14 For a detailed analysis of such a zone, see Jan Prawitz & James F. Leonard, A Zone Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East (Geneva: United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, 1996).

15 See Dr. Mahmoud Karem (Director of Department of Disarmament Affairs, Egypt), `The 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference: A Third World Perspective', a paper submitted to the Institut Francais des Relations International (IFRI), June 1995.

16 Michael Eisenstadt, Iranian Military Power: Capabilities and Intentions (Washington, DC: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1996); Ian Lesser & Ashley Tellis, Strategic Exposure: Proliferation around the Mediterranean (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1996); Yossef Bodansky, `The Grand Strategy of Iran', Global Affairs, vol. 8, no. 4 (Fall 1993), pp. 19-36.

17 Gerald M. Steinberg, `Non-Proliferation: Time for Regional Approaches?', Orbis, vol. 38, no. 3 (Summer 1994), pp. 409-424; see also Prawitz & Leonard.

18 Ariel E. Levite & Emily B. Landau, In the Eyes of the Arabs: Israel's Nuclear Image (Hebrew) (Tel Aviv: Tel Aviv University Press, 1994).

19 For a discussion of the role of Egyptian domestic factors in this process, see Fawaz A. Gerges, `Egyptian-Israeli Relations Turn Sour', Foreign Affairs, May/June 1995, pp. 69-78; and Guy Bechor, `The Egyptian Campaign on the NPT Increased the Popularity of Mubarak and Mousa on Cairo's Streets', Haaretz, 19 April 1995, p. 2.

20 Shalhevet Freier, `A Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in the Middle East and Effective Verification', in Disarmament: A Periodic Review by the United Nations, vol. XVI, no. 3 (1993), pp. 66-91.

21 Salamah Ahmad Salamah, `Closeup: Nuclear Tests in al-Aqaba?', Al Ahram, 28 November 1995, p. 10, in FBIS-NES-95-233, 5 December 1995, p. 10. In contrast, the Egyptian Minister of Science announced that the seismic evidence showed that the movement was the result of an earthquake.

22 Arieh O'Sullivan, `Turkey Denies Letting IAF Train There', Jerusalem Post, 8 April 1996.

23 Zeev Schiff, `Six Difficult Nuclear Questions', Haaretz, 24 February 1995, p. C-2; Amre Mousa, cited in Davar Rishon, 11 April 1996.

24 Shmuel Segev, `Egypt Moving Toward Anti-US, Anti-Israel Policy', Jerusalem Post, 17 May 1995.