The Future of Islamic Afghanistan

1 On the history of these factions, see Anthony Arnold, Afghanistan's Two-Party Communism: Parcham and Khalq (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1983).

2 For details, see Amin Saikal & William Maley, Regime Change in Afghanistan: Foreign Intervention and the Politics of Legitimacy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991), pp. 33-40.

3 See Michael Dobbs, `The Afghan Archive: Secret Memos Trace Kremlin's March to War', The Washington Post, 15 November 1992, pp. A1, A32.

4 Vladimir Snegirev, `On byl zalozhnikom kremlia: Babrak Karmal rasskazyvaet' (`He was a hostage of the Kremlin; Babrak Karmal narrates'), Trud, 24 October 1991, pp. 1,4.

5 Riaz M. Khan, Untying the Afghan Knot: Negotiating Soviet Withdrawal (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1991), pp. 1-2.

6 See William Maley, `Soviet-Afghan Relations after the Coup', Report on the USSR, vol. 3, no. 38, 20 September 1991, pp. 11-15.

7 For a detailed discussion, see Olivier Roy, Islam and Resistance in Afghanistan (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990).

8 For testimony which (perhaps inadvertently) makes this clear, see Mohammad Yousaf and Mark Adkin, The Bear Trap: Afghanistan's Untold Story (London: Leo Cooper, 1992).

9 On Arab volunteers in Afghanistan, see Anthony Davis, `Foreign Combatants in Afghanistan', Jane's Intelligence Review, vol. 5, no. 7, July 1993, pp. 327-331.

10 Olivier Roy, The Lessons of the Soviet/Afghan War (London: Brassey's, 1991), pp. 34-37.

11 International Herald Tribune, 22 April 1992, p. 2.

12 BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, FE/1461/B/1, 17 August 1992.

13 Bulletin du CEREDAF, no. 89, April 1993, p. 1.

14 United Nations, Afghan Peace Accord, UN Documents S/25435, 19 March 1993.

15 Michael G. Burton & John Higley, `Elite Settlements', American Sociological Review, vol. 52, no. 3, June 1987, pp. 295-307.

16 Barnett R. Rubin, `Political Elites in Afghanistan: Rentier State Building, Rentier State Wrecking', International Journal of Middle East Studies, vol. 24, no. 1, February 1992, pp. 77-99 at p. 87.

17 Following the replacement of the Communist regime, Kabul witnessed periodic eruptions of fighting between Shiite supporters of the Iranian-backed Hezb-i Wahdat (Party of Unity) and Sunnis attached to a small, Saudi-funded party supporting Rabbani's government, namely the Ittehad-i Islami Afghanistan (Islamic Union of Afghanistan) headed by Professor Abdul Rasul Sayyaf. The Afghan Shia, many of them members of the Hazara ethnic group, had long been consigned to the lowliest social stratum in the country - and it is there that at least some of the more radical Sunni Pushtuns would like them to stay.

18 See Etienne Gille, `Les forces en présence à Kaboul', Les Nouvelles d' Afghanistan, no. 60, 1993, pp.I-II.

19 See Anthony Davis, `The Afghan Army', Jane's Intelligence Review, vol. 5, no. 3, March 1993, pp. 134-39.

20 Peter Hopkirk, The Great Game: On Secret Service in High Asia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990).

21 On the bases of such incoherence, see Matthew Soberg Shugart and John M. Carey, Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992), pp. 55-75.

22 BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, FE/1664/B/1, 16 April 1993.

23 This is a conservative estimate. See Noor Ahmad Khalidi, `Afghanistan: Demographic Consequences of War, 1978-1987', Central Asian Survey, vol. 10, no. 3, 1991, pp. 101-126 at p. 107.

24 A May 1990 report estimated the internal population at 12,363,225: see Thomas H. Eighmy, Afghanistan's Population Inside and Out (Islamabad: Office of A.I.D. Representative for Afghanistan Affairs, 1990), p. 11.

25 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Afghan Digest, no. 61. 28 July 1993, p. 1; and IRNA in English, 27 July 1993.

26 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Update on Afghanistan, 15 July 1992, p. 1.

27 Jeri Laber & Barnett R. Rubin, A Nation is Dying: Afghanistan under the Soviets 1979-87 (Evanston, IL: Northwestern University Press, 1988), pp. 58-65.

28 See Afghanistan: Mine Clearance Programme for 1993 (Islamabad: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance to Afghanistan, 1993), p. 2.

29 Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, OK and London: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), p. 54.

30 Richard Nixon, In the Arena: A Memoir of Victory, Defeat, and Renewal (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1990), p. 353. See also Anthony Arnold, The Fateful Pebble: Afghanistan's Role in the Fall of the Soviet Empire (San Francisco, CA: Presidio Press, 1993).

31 See Hiram A. Ruiz, Left Out in the Cold: The Perilous Homecoming of Afghan Refugees (Washington DC: US Committee for Refugees, 1992).

32 Frances D'Souza, The Threat of Famine in Afghanistan (London: AfghanAid, 1984).

33 See Nassim Jawad, Afghanistan: A Nation of Minorities (London: Minority Rights Group, 1992), p. 33.

34 See Robert L. Canfield, `Restructuring in Greater Central Asia: Changing Political Configurations', Asian Survey, vol. 32, no. 10, October 1992, pp. 875-87 at pp. 882-85.

35 See Samuel P. Huntington, `The Clash of Civilizations?', Foreign Affairs, vol. 72, no. 3, Summer 1993, pp. 22-49.

36 For a detailed discussion of the problems of holding elections in Afghanistan, see William Maley & Fazel Haq Saikal, Political Order in Post-Communist Afghanistan (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1992), pp. 33-48.