The Post-Cold War Third World

1. A study recently prepared by German economists for the Deutsche Bank, while highlighting the prospects of a Peace Dividend as a result of the Gulf War and the end of the Cold War, noted the difficulty in converting arms industries into civilian production in both Europe and the Developed World. Business and Political Observer (New Dehli), 10 April 1991.

2. In 'Power Game', Asia Year Book (Hong Kong; Far Eastern Economic Review, 1990).

3. Hartung William D. , 'Breaking the Arms Sales Addiction: New Directions for US Policy', World Policy Journal, Vol. 8, no. 1, 1990–91, pp. 1–26 (see pp. 15–16 and notes 24, 26 and 29). See also Richard F. Grimmett, Trends in Conventional Arms Transfers to the Third World by Major Suppliers, 1982–89 (Washington DC: Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, 19 June 1990).

4. See also Tritten James J. , America Promises to Come Back: A New National Strategy (Washington DC, 13 May 1991). See also Bush's speech in the US Congress on 11 September 1990.

5. Times of India (New Delhi), 8 April 1991. Also, Janne E. Nolan, 'The Global Arms Market after the Gulf War: Prospects for Control', Washington Quarterly, vol. 14, no. 3, summer 1991, pp. 125–138.

6. Wireless Files on Near-East and South Asia (New Delhi) (29, 30 May 1991).

7. A description of some of these Third World rivalries and the arms race resulting from them can be seen in Geoffrey Kemp, 'Regional Security, Arms Control, and the End of the Cold War', Washington Quarterly, Vol. 13, no. 4, autumn 1990, pp. 33–51.

8. Sunday Observer (New Delhi), 14–20 April 1991. Sunday Telegraph (Calcutta), 14 April 1991.

9. Kirkpatrick Jeane J. , 'Beyond the Cold War', Foreign Affairs, Vol. 69, no. 1, 1989–90, pp. 1–16. See also Ian Anthony, Agnes Courades Allebeck and Herbert Wulf, West European Arms Production (Stockholm: SIPRI, October 1990).

10. Fialka John Lachica Euardo , 'Easing of Technology Export Controls May Boost Arms Smuggling in Mideast', Wall Street Journal , 19 June 1990, and Gary Milhollin, 'Attention; Nuke-Mart Choppers!', Washington Post, 22 July 1990. Cited in William D. Hartung, 'Breaking the Arms Sales Addiction', op. cit.

11. The prospects of arms control in the Third World after the Gulf War have been discussed in Janne E. Nolan, 'The Global Arms Market After the Gulf War'; see also John McCain, 'Controlling Arms Sales to the Third World', Washington Quarterly, Vol. 14, no. 2, spring 1991, pp. 79–89.

12. Text of President Bush's proposal for such consultations was given in the White House Fact Sheet, 29 May 1991 (New Dehli: USIS).

13. Director of US Naval Intelligence, Thomas A. Brooks said that at least 40 countries were seeking 'low observable' weapons technologies such as used in F-117 Stealth fighters deployed to cripple Iraq's air defence system during the Gulf War, Times of India, 8 April 1991; Hindustan Times, 11 April 1991.

14. A recent study prepared by the non-partisan Office of Technology Assessment of the US Congress concluded that the 'United States is contributing substantially to the proliferation of conventional arms as the world's major exporter of sophisticated military technology', International Herald Tribune, 22–23 June 1991.

15. SIPRI Yearbook, 1990. World Armaments and Disarmament (New York: Oxford University Press).

16. Minjie Yang Zhiyong Li , 'Arms Control in Middle East: An Uneasy Job', Beijing Review , 17–23 June 1991, pp. 7–8.

17. Times of India (New Delhi), 3 August 1991. The Defence Minister disclosed this in the newly elected Parliament.

18. Tisdall Simon Tran Mark , 'Third World Conflicts Surpassed all Understandings', The Guardian , 1 June 1990; Martin Walker, 'End of Cold War Fails to Stop Local Conflicts But Gives Hope in Proxy Battlefields', The Guardian, 29 August 1989; Jim Hoagland, 'Third World: The Big Powers Are Losing Interest', International Herald Tribune, 26 October 1989; also 'The Third World Will Do More of Its Own Fighting', International Herald Tribune, 15 March 1989.

19. Robert Brenner , 'Why is the United States at War With Iraq', New Left Review , no. 185, January/February 1991, pp. 122–138.

20. Lewis Gaddis John , 'Toward the Post-Cold War World', Foreign Affairs, Vol. 70, no. 2, spring 1991, pp. 102–122; here at p. 111.

21. Ibid., p. 102.

22. John Chipman , 'Third World Politics and Security in the 1990s: The World Forgetting; By the World Forgot', Washington Quarterly, winter 1991, Vol. 14, no. 1, p. 153; see also Mohammed Ayoob, 'Security Problematic of the Third World', World Politics, vol. 43, January 1991, pp. 257–283; Yezid Sayigh, 'Confronting the 1990s: Security in the Developing Countries', Adelphi Paper 251 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1990).

23. Charles Krauthammer , 'The Unipolar Moment', Foreign Affairs, Vol. 70, no. 1, 1991, pp. 23–33.

24. On the new US National Security Strategy in the post-Cold War World, see President Bush's Aspen Institute address on 2 August 1991 (note 4); see also the study by Tritten, America Promises to Come Back (note 4).

25. Scenarios of threats from the Third World have been painted in the US strategic calculations since the late 1980s. See, for instance, the report by the Commission on Integrated Long-Term Stategy, set-up under the then Assistant Secretary of Defence, Fred Ikle, in late 1987; Discriminate Deterrence (Washington DC: US Department of Defence, January 1991). For the latest evidence of such scenarios, see 1991 Joint Military Net Assessment (Washington DC: US Department of Defence, March 1991). For a political argument stressing threats from the Third World, see US Congressional Arms Control and Foreign Policy Caucus's Report entitled The Developing World: Danger Points for US Security. Arguments of this report have been summed up in Mark O. Hatfield and Mathew F. McHugh, 'After Containment: A Foreign Policy for the 1990s', SAIS Review (Washington' DC), vol. 11, no. 1, winter-spring, 1991, pp. 1–10. It may be useful to note here that even a Soviet observer argued that the US was aware of the 'Threat from the Third World' and that the USSR should also realize it. Dimitri Yevstafyev, 'Third World's Changing Face: Is Soviet Diplomacy Ready?', New Times (Moscow), no. 41, 9 October 1990.

26. Carl Conetta et al., 'Towards Defensive Restructuring in the Middle East', Bulletin of Peace Proposals, Vol. 22, no. 2, 1991, pp. 115–134. Also Hartung, 'Breaking the Arms Sales Addiction' (note 3).

27. 1991, Joint Military Net Assessment (note 25); Carl E. Vuono, 'Desert Storm and the Future of Conventional Forces', Foreign Affairs, spring 1991, pp. 49–68.

28. Art Robert J. , 'A Defensible Defense. America's Grand Strategy After the Cold War', International Security, Vol. 15, no. 4, spring 1991, pp. 5–53.

29. Van Evera Stephen , 'Why Europe Matters: Why the Third World Doesn't: American Grand Strategy After the Cold War', Strategic Studies, Vol. 13, no. 2, June 1990, p. 32.

30. The Challenge to the South. The Report of the South Commission, August 1990 (Oxford University Press, 1990), p. 216.

31. SIPRI Yearbook 1990 , pp. 203–217. Also, Campbell and Weiss, 'The Third World in the Wake of Eastern Europe'.

32. SIPRI Ibid.

33. The Challenge to the South . See also Gamani Corea, 'Global Stakes Require a New Consensus', IFDA Dossier (Switzerland), no. 78, July/September, 1990, p. 75.

34. Campbell weiss , 'The Third World in the Wake of Eastern Europe'; see also Stephen Van Evera, 'Why Europe Matters'.

35. International Herald Tribune , 2 April 1990.

36. Bruce Cummings , 'Trilateralism and the New World War', World Policy Journal, Vol. VIII, no. 2, spring 1991, pp. 195–226.'

37. The Group of Fifteen (G-15) Southern nations, in a meeting held in Kuala Lumpur in June 1990, also criticized the holding of the Uruguay Round negotiations that ignored the interests of the poorer countries. Financial Times, 4 June 1990; also Sardan Kerim, 'Group of Fifteen Summit', Review of International Affairs (Belgrade), 20 June 1990. Also the official document of G-15 issued from Geneva, June 1991.

38. Shaikh Altaf a. , 'Economics of Disarmament', Defence Journal (Karachi), October 1990, p. 42.

39. Michkund Dubey , India's Foreign Secretary has argued along these lines in his writing and speeches.