Why We Must Accept Nuclear Winter Theory

Einstein's striking expression was 'The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking, and thus we drift toward unparalleled catastrophe'. In Otto Nathan & Heinz Norden , eds, Einstein on Peace (New York: Simon & Schustcr, 1960), p. 376. This book is a valuable collection of Einstein's writings on peace and related issues.

For documentation of this contention see Susan Subak , 'Strategists Evade Nuclear Winter', Nuclear Times, May/Junc, 1986, pp. 18-19.

In April 1983 the TTAPS study was submitted to the critical scrutiny of many physical and biological scientists who widely agreed with its findings. In October of that year the Conference on the World After Nuclear War held in Washington DC was the forum for the public presentation of the TTAPS study. Shortly after the Conference the TTAPS study was published formally. See Richard P. Turco et al., 'Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions' , Science, vol. 222 ( 1983), pp. 1283-1292. The same issue of this journal contains a companion paper by Paul Erlich and 19 other biologists on the short-term biological consequences of a nuclear winter as depicted in TTAPS. A major direct stimulus to the TTAPS formulation of nuclear winter theory was the research by P.J. Crutzen & J.W. Birks , 'The Atmosphere After a Nuclear War: Twilight at Noon', Ambio, vol. 11 (1982), pp. 115-125. This was the first quantitative study to reveal the importance of smoke for climatic changes following a nuclear war.

Edward Teller , 'Widespread After-Effects of Nuclear War', Nature, vol. 301 (1984), p. 624. A critique of Teller's paper is provided by Carl Sagan , 'On Minimizing the Consequences of Nuclear War', Nature, vol. 317 (1985), pp. 485-488. In their thinking about nuclear issues, and science more generally, Teller and Sagan provide a sharp contrast as role models for present and future scientists. I think it is evident that the world needs fewer nuclearists like Teller, and more Sagans.

E. Marshall , 'Nuclear Winter Debate Heats Up', Science, vol. 235 (1987), pp. 271-273. An accidental delay and an intervening rainstorm led to disappointing, inconclusive results in this open fire experiment.

For an instructive account of contemporary science that stresses this and other important themes, see Clifford A. Hooker , 'Understanding and Control: An Essay on the Structural Dynamics of Human Cognition', Man-Environment Systems, vol. 12 ( 1982), pp. 121-160.

See Thomas P. Ackerman et al., 'The Climatic Effects of Nuclear War', Scientific American, vol. 251 (1984), p. 30.

George W. Rathjens & Ronald H. Siegel , 'Nuclear Winter: Strategic Significance ', Issues in Science and Technology, Winter, 1985, pp. 125-127.

A. Barry Pittock ct al., Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War, Vol. I: Physical and Atmospheric Effects ( New York: Wilcy, 1986); Mark A. Harwell & Thomas C. Hutchinson , Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War, Vol. II: Ecological and Agricultural Effects (New York: Wiley, 1985). A more accessible version of the SCOPE report is L. Dotto , Planet Earth in Jeopardy (Chichester: Wiley, 1986).

Robert C. Malone ct al., 'Nuclear Winter: Three-Dimensional Simulations Including Interactive Transport, Scavenging, and Solar Heating of Smoke', Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 91 (1986), pp. 1039-1053. An international workshop of more than 50 scientists in Bangkok, in early 1987, agreed that the most recent findings arc broadly consistent with earlier views on nuclear winter. See A.B. Pittock , 'Nuclear Seasons Reassessed', Search, vol. 18 (1987), p. 100.

Carl Sagan , 'The Nuclear Winter Debate', Foreign Affairs, vol. 65 (1986), pp. 161-168. Here Sagan argues, correctly I believe, that worst-case thinking is appropriate when the stakes are so high.

Rathjens & Siegel , 'Nuclear Winter' , pp. 124, 127. This interpretation of Rathjens & Siegel's position as best-case thinking is further supported by their claim that '... it is a grave mistake to argue that it is prudent to base policy on the worst possible effects of a nuclear exchange, given the large uncertainties' (p. 127). S.L. Thompson & S.H. Schneider , 'Nuclear Winter Reappraised', Foreign Affairs, vol. 64 (1986), p. 989, also interpret Rathjens and Siegel's view as an expression of best-case thinking.

See World Health Organization , Effects of Nuclear War on Health and Health Services ( Geneva, 1983) and the recent upward revision of casualty estimates following a nuclear war: World Health Organization, Effects of Nuclear War on Health and Health Services (Geneva, 1985).

A passionate presentation of a theory of valuable knowledge is Nicholas Maxwell , From Knowledge to Wisdom (Oxford: Blackwell, 1984). Maxwell urges replacement of our standard empiricist philosophy of knowledge by a philosophy of wisdom which would have scientific and other forms of enquiry accord priority to articulating and solving major problems of living.

In good part the history of science is the history of discarded theories. But these theories have sometimes been the basis for profitable action, despite their falsity. I think the case is already quite strong for accepting severe-case nuclear winter theory as our best account of the climatic consequences of nuclear war.

Jeannie Peterson, 'Scientific Studies of the Unthinkable: The Physical and Biological Effects of Nuclear War', Ambio, vol. 15 (1986), pp. 60-69.

A.B. Pittock , 'Australia and Nuclear Winter', Search, vol. 15 (1984/5), p. 338. All governments have a major responsibility to develop and pursue policies aimed at reducing the risk of nuclear war. In this regard the New Zealand Government's present antinuclear stand is admirable, though it does not go far enough. However, I believe the New Zealand Planning Council's recent decision to study the general impact of a nuclear war and nuclear winter on New Zealand should not have been accorded top priority. Enough is now known to suggest that a post-war Antipodean existence would be bleak indeed. For the sake of all humanity we must channel our energies into preventing a Northern Hemisphere nuclear war.

Carl Sagan, 'Nuclear Winter and Climatic Catastrophe', Foreign Affairs, vol. 62 (1983/4), pp. 257-292.

Luis W. Alvarez et al., 'Extraterrestrial Cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary Extinction', Science, vol. 208 (1980), pp. 1095-1108. Palaeontologist Stephen Gould has remarked that, if this theory is correct, Darwinian competition between species assumes less importance; that we are here, not because mammals competed successfully with the dinosaurs, but because a megablast wiped them out, thus creating a favourable ecological niche for mammals. See Stephen Gould , The Flamingo's Smile (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1985).

See Albert Einstein , 'Why Socialism?' in his Ideas and Opinions (New York: Bonanza, 1954), pp. 151-158. A recent forceful argument for the view that it is impossible to eliminate the threat of nuclear war without eliminating the capitalist system is provided by Ernst Mandel , 'The Threat of War and the Struggle for Socialism', New Left Review, no. 141, 1983, pp. 23-50.