Limits of Influence

J. T., 'Realpolitik - The Politics of Realities,' in: Abraham Brumberg (ed.), Poland, Genesis of a Revolution, New York 1983, p. 264 (Original in: Res Publica (Warsaw), 1980, 7).

The Black book of Polish Censorship. Translated and edited by Jane Leftwich Curry , New York 1984, p. 116.

Therefore it is still impossible to give a full picture of bilateral relations in this crucial period, or to conduct studies comparable to Karen Dawisha's The Kremlin and the Prague Spring (Berkeley - Los Angeles- London 1984) or Jiri Valenta's Soviet Intervention in Czechoslovakia, 1968. Anatomy of a Decision (Baltimore and London 1979).

Pravda, 1 September 1980.

Jan B. de Weydenthal , Bruce D. Porter & Kevin Devlin , The Polish Drama: 1980-1982, Lexington, Mass. 1983, p. 101.

Edwina Moreton , 'The Soviet Union and Poland's Struggle for Self-Control', in: International Security, 7 (Summer 1982) 1, pp. 96-97, raises this question. A scenario like this could have been possible, she argues, had the PUWP been strong and determined enough to make a deal with Solidarity's moderates, who wanted to concentrate their efforts on defending the trade union rights won at Gdansk.

Pravda, 2 January 1981.

See especially Michal Heller , Polska w oczach Moskwy ( Paris 1984) for a chronology of Soviet press articles on Solidarity.

Michal Heller , Sous le Regard de Moscou. Paris 1982, p. 11.

Osadczuk-Korab is one of the few who holds a different opinion. He writes: 'Offenkundig wurde die Nachfolge Giereks mit der Sowjetführung nicht vereinbart. Kania soll bereits vorher das Vertrauen Moskaus eingebüsst haben.' ( Bogdan Alexander Osadczuk-Korab , 'Haltung der Sowjetunion in den Krisen des polnischen Kommunismus', in: Richard Löwenthal & Boris Meissner (hrsg.), Der Sowjetblock zwischen Vormachtkontrolle und Autonomie, Köln 1984, p. 125).

Most observers are of a different opinion and interpret this temporary softening as a sign of Soviet support for Kania's leadership and policy. Cf. Jiri Valenta , 'Revolutionary Change, Soviet Intervention and 'Normalization' in East-Central Europe', in: Comparative Politics, January 1984, 2, p. 138; Richard D. Anderson, Jr., 'Soviet decision-making and Poland', in: Problems of Communism, xxxi (March-April 1982) 2, p. 22 en Andrzej Korbonski , 'Soviet Policy toward Poland', in: Sarah Melklejohn Terry (ed.), Soviet Policy in Eastern Europe, New Haven and London, 1984, p. 80.

Pravda, 12 June 1981.

Pravda, 7 September 1980.

Pravda, 8 September 1980.

Ryszard J. Kuklinski , Wojna z narodem (Odbitka z 'Kultury', Nr. 4/475, April 1987 ), Paris 1987, p. 43.

Korbonski , Soviet Policy toward Poland, p. 82.

Kuklinski, Wojna z narodem, pp. 17, 22.

The member of the delegation made these remarks to a Polish journalist. Tim Sebastian , BBC correspondent in Warsaw, related them in Nice Promises, London 1985, p. 101.

Pravda, 26 April 1981.

Pravda, 12 June 1981.

Valenta , 'Normalization'? The Soviet Union and Poland, in: The Washington Quarterly, 5 (Autumn 1982) 4, p. 108. It cannot, of course be proven that the Soviet leaders had Kania's fall in mind in June 1981. Opinion on this point varies. Dieter Bingen states: 'Praktisch stellte dieser Brief einen Aufruf zum Sturz der amtierenden Parteiführung noch vor dem fur Juli angesetzten 9. Ausserordentlichen PVAP-Kongress dar.' ('Die Rolle der Sowjetunion in der Polen-Krise 1981 bis 1983. Eine militärische Intervention fand keine Mehrheit,' in: Beiträge zur Konfliktforschung, 14 (1984) 1, p. 54). George Sanford in my opinion underestimates the differences of opinion between the Soviet and Polish party leaderships on overcoming the crisis and therefore the tension they caused between Moscow and Warsaw. He interprets the letter of June 1981 not so much as a personal attack on Kania, but only as a form of pressure meant to slow down the spread of democratization in view of the upcoming congress (Polish Communism in Crisis, London 1983, p. 196).

Kuklinski, Wojna z Narodem, p. 43.

Dawisha, The Kremlin and the Prague Spring, pp. 364-365.

Vladimir Solovyov & Elena Klepikova, Behind the High Walls of the Kremlin, New York 1987, p. 103.

Valenta, 'Revolutionary Change, Soviet Intervention and 'Normalization', in East-Central Europe', p 140.

Sidney Ploss, Moscow and the Polish Crisis (Boulder, Colorado 1986) (Appendix 1, p. 155) assumes that articles appearing in Pravda under the headline 'Situation in Poland' or 'Events in Poland' must be seen as signs of great uneasiness in the Kremlin over the developments taking place at that moment. Such articles appeared quite frequently in the weeks preceding Kania's removal: on 15, 16, 17, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 27, 29 and 30 September, and on 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 October. Furthermore, they appeared after Jaruzelski's appointment: on 26 and 28 October, on 11, 12, 20 and 26 November and on 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12 and 13 December.

Pravda, 14 November 1981. See for a similar article: Izvestiya, 27 November 1981.

Not until 11 December did the commander of the Warsaw Pact, Viktor Kulikov, arrive in Poland. He took up residence with his staff of fifty officers in their headquarters in Rumbertow (Yvan Dujon, La Victime d'une Crise: l'Armée Populaire Polonaise, in: L'Autre Europe, December 1984, 3/4, p. 63.) According to vice-premier Rakowski he was himself only informed by Jaruzelski on December 11: 'Zweifellos meinten die Militars, es sei nun an der Zeit, diese in der Nachkriegsgeschichte schwerste Entscheidung zu treffen...' (italics added) (M.F. Rakowski, Ein Schwieriger Dialog. Aufzeichnungen zu Ereignissen in Polen 1981-1984, Düsseldorf-Wien 1985, p. 136.). Minister of Internal Affairs Czeslaw Kiszczak said in an interview that he and Jaruzelski only dotted the i's in the afternoon of December 12. Right after their meeting the provincial commanders of the People's Militia received the signal to start the definite preparations for martial law (Andrzej Kepinski & Zbigniew Kilar, Kto jest kim w Polsce - Inaczej II, Warszawa 1986, p. 248).

Ploss, Moscow and the Polish Crisis, pp. 86, 145; Richard Spielman, 'Crisis in Poland', in: Foreign Policy, Winter 1982-83, 49, p. 32.

Kuklinski, Wojna z Narodem, p. 6.