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** This article is based on a lecture presented to the Swiss Institute of International Studies, Zurich, and will also be published (jointly with contributions by Arne O. Brundtland, George-André Chevallaz, Yair Evron, Daniel Frei, Francois de Rose, Max Schmidt, Michel Tatu, Vernon A. Walters and Manfred Wörner) in Daniel Frei (Ed.): Sicherheit durch Gleichgewicht? Militärstrategische Tendenzen der achtziger Jahre, Zürich: Schulthess-Polygraphischer Verlag.