Can Russia Sustain its Dominance in Central Asia?

1 `The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 11 July 2000, p. 3; available at http://www.mid.ru/mid/eng/econcept.htm.

2 These three pillars of Primakov's foreign policy are described in Aleksei Pushkov, `From Dreams of Harmony to Tough-Minded Realism', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 18 July 2000.

3 Roland Dannreuther, `Russia's Eurasian Security Policy', Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Occasional Paper Series, no. 29, August 2000.

4 Vladimir Putin, `Russia: New Oriental Prospects', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 14 November 2000.

5 For a discussion of this, see Roland Dannreuther, Creating New States in Central Asia, Adelphi Paper no. 288 (London: Oxford University Press for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1994), pp. 51-69.

6 President Karimov's predictable response was to tell Baker not to interfere in Uzbekistan's internal affairs, as reported in Komsomolskaya gazeta, 12 February 1993.

7 Rosemarie Forsythe, The Politics of Oil in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Adelphi Paper no. 300 (London: Oxford University Press for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1996), p. 1.

8 For a detailed analysis of the internal US decisionmaking over this issue, see James M. Goldgeier, `NATO Expansion: The Anatomy of a Decision', Washington Quarterly, vol. 21, no. 1, Winter 1998, pp. 85-102.

9 The strongest advocate for such a change of direction was Zbigniew Brzezinski, who argued that the West must prevent Russia from becoming a `mighty supranational state and truly global power' by promoting `geopolitical pluralism'. See Zbigniew Brzezinski, `The Premature Partnership', Foreign Affairs, vol. 73, no. 2, March/April 1994, pp. 67-82.

10 Gennady Chufrin, `The Caspian Sea Basin: The Security Dimensions', in SIPRI Yearbook, 1998 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998), pp. 219-221.

11 See argument to this effect in S. Frederick Starr, `Making Eurasia Stable', Foreign Affairs, vol. 75, no. 1, January/February 1996, pp. 80-92; and Zbigniew Bzrezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives (New York: Basic Books, 1997).

12 See, for example, comments by Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov and President Karimov in Bruce Pannier, `Uzbekistan: Minister Announces Plans To Quit CIS Defence Pact', Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty Report, 4 February 1999.

13 Roland Dannreuther, `Escaping the Enlargement Trap in NATO-Russian Relations', Survival, vol. 41, no. 4, Winter 1999-2000), pp. 145-164, on p. 154.

14 For a discussion of Primakov's Asian strategy, see Roland Dannreuther, `Is Russia Returning to the Middle East?', Security Dialogue, vol. 29, no. 3, September 1998, pp. 345-358.

15 For a comprehensive study of the evolution of the CIS, see Richard Sakwa & Mark Webber, `The Commonwealth of Independent States, 1991-1998: Stagnation and Survival', Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 51, no. 3, 1999, pp. 379-415.

16 The best account of the Tajik civil war and its settlement is to be found in Olivier Roy, La nouvelle Asie centrale ou la fabrication des nations [The New Central Asia: The Creation of New States] (Paris: Seuil, 1997).

17 Amy Myers Jaffe & Robert A. Manning, `The Myth of the Caspian “Great Game”: The Real Geopolitics of Energy', Survival, vol. 40, no. 4, Winter 1998-99, pp. 112-129; and Martha Brill Olcott, `The Caspian's False Promise', Foreign Policy, no. 111, Summer 1998, pp. 95-113. For a generally critical account of Western overextension in the Caspian Sea region, see Anatol Lieven, `The (Not So) Great Game', National Interest, no. 58, Winter 1999/2000, pp. 69-80.

18 Bruce Pannier, `Central Asia: Joint Military Exercise Practices Common Defence', Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 29 March 2000.

19 For an analysis of the broader international implications of the Kosovo conflict, see Adam Roberts, `NATO's “Humanitarian War” over Kosovo', Survival, vol. 41, no. 3, Autumn 1999, pp. 102-123.

20 Viktoria Panfilova, `Moscow and Bishkent Continue To Forge Closer Links', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 28 July 2000.

21 It was noted that President Nazarbayev's visit to Moscow in June 2000 was much less warm and involved tough bilateral negotiations. See Robert Lucca, `Russia-Kazakh Relations Remain Rocky Despite Strategic Alliance', Jane's Intelligence Review, September 2000, pp. 25-28.

22 `The Foreign Policy Concept' (note 1 above).

23 Aleksei Malashenko, `Who Will Have To Get Used to Visas?', Moskovskiye novosti, no. 35, 5-11 September 2000.

24 Quoted in Arkady Dubnov, `Economic Community Emerging in Eurasia', Vremya novostei, 10 October 2000.

25 The five states constituting the Eurasian Economic Community are Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Belarus. These states, plus Armenia, are also signatories to the Tashkent Collective Security Treaty. Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova comprise the GUUAM, a political grouping which has no other name than this acronym derived from a list of its member-states. For details, see Ekaterina Tesemnikova and Armen Khanbabyan, `The “Six” against the “Five” ', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 14 October 2000.

26 For an excellent analysis of the Taliban and developments in Afghanistan, see Barnett Rubin, `Testimony on the Situation in Afghanistan', United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, 8 October 1998.

27 R. Grant Smith, `Tajikistan: The Rocky Road to Peace', Central Asian Survey, vol. 18, no. 2, 1999, pp. 243-251.

28 Uran Botobekov, `Situation in the Ferghana Valley: Religious Extremism and Drug Trafficking', in Alexei Malashenko, ed., Multidimensional Borders of Central Asia (Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center, 1999), pp. 43-54.

29 Statement by Karimov at the Central Asian Summit in Tashkent, as reported in Bruce Pannier, `Central Asia: Presidents Grapple with Regional Security', Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 28 April 2000.

30 Pannier (note 18 above).

31 Andrei Korbut, `Opium Instead of Bread', Nezavisimoe voennoye obozrenie, no. 17, 2000.

32 For example, Vitalii V. Naumkin, `The Emerging Geopolitical Balance in Central Asia: A Russian View', in Gennady Chufrin, ed., Russia and Asia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp. 83-85.

33 Viktoria Panfilova, `Uzbekistan Will Defend Itself', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 28 September 2000.

34 Pavel Felgengauer, `Don't Go Looking for Adventures in Asia', Moskovskiye novosti, no. 21, 30 May-5 June 2000.

35 This is recognized by the Russian ambassador to Uzbekistan, Dmitry Riurikov, as quoted in Ivan Sergeyev, `Causes of Instability Lie in the Socioeconomic Realm', Nezavismiya gazeta, 21 December 2000.