Turkey's H2O Diplomacy in the Middle East

1 George E. Gruen, `The Politics of Water and Middle East Peace', American Foreign Policy Interests, vol. 22, no. 2, April 2000, pp. 1-21, on p. 15.

2 Sami Kohen, `A Thirsty Syria May Make Turkey's Water the Price of Peace', Christian Science Monitor, 9 January 1996; `Middle East Economic Briefs', Xinhua News Agency, 20 September 2000.

3 GAP Regional Development Administration, Southeast Anatolia Project (Ankara, 1997), pp. 5-6; idem, Status Report: Southeastern Anatolia Project (June 2000) (Ankara, 2000), p. 13.

4 Quoted in Olcay I. Ünver, `Innovations in Water Resources Development in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) of Turkey', in Ali Ihsan Bagis, ed., Water as an Element of Cooperation and Development in the Middle East (Ankara: Hacettepe University and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation in Turkey, 1994), pp. 27-37, on p. 28. See also Nippon Koei Co. Ltd. & Yüksel Proje A.S., The Southeastern Anatolia Project Master Plan Study: Final Master Plan Report, vol. 1: Executive Summary (Ankara, 1990), pp. 3-5.

5 John Kolars, `Problems of International River Management: The Case of the Euphrates', in Asit Biswas, ed., International Waters of the Middle East from Euphrates-Tigris to Nile (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994), pp. 44-94, on p. 51; idem, `Managing the Impact of Development: The Euphrates and Tigris Rivers and the Ecology of the Arabian Gulf - A Link in Forging Tri-Riparian Cooperation', in Bagis (note 4 above), pp. 129-153, on p. 137; and John F. Kolars & William A. Mitchell, The Euphrates River and the Southeast Anatolia Development Project (Carbondale & Edwardsville, IL: Southern Illinois University Press, 1991), pp. 39, 40.

6 Kolars & Mitchell (note 5 above), pp. 25-27; Gün Kut, `Burning Waters: The Hydropolitics of the Euphrates and Tigris', New Perspectives on Turkey, vol. 9, Fall 1993, pp. 1-17, on p. 4; Özden Bilen, Turkey and Water Issues in the Middle East (Ankara: Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) Regional Development Administration, 1997), pp. 114-115.

7 Kolars & Mitchell (note 5 above), p. 31; Philip Robins, Turkey and the Middle East (London: Pinter, 1991), pp. 54, 59-61.

8 Robins (note 7 above), p. 52.

9 Ibid., p. 93; Natasha Beschorner, Water and Instability in the Middle East, Adelphi Paper no. 273 (London: Brassey's for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1992), p. 37; Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Water Issues Between Turkey, Syria and Iraq (Ankara, 1996), pp. 10-11.

10 George E. Gruen, `Recent Negotiations over the Waters of the Euphrates and Tigris', in International Water Resources Association, Proceedings of the International Symposium on Water Resources in the Middle East (Urbana-Champaign, IL, 1993), pp. 100-108, on pp. 103, 104; Waltina Scheumann, `Conflict on the Euphrates: An Analysis of Water and Non-Water Issues', in Waltina Scheumann & Manuel Schiffler, eds, Water in the Middle East: Potential for Conflicts and Prospects for Cooperation (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1998), pp. 113-135, on p. 124.

11 Beschorner (note 9 above), pp. 37, 42.

12 Gruen (note 10 above), p. 105.

13 Robert Olson, `Turkey-Syria Relations Since the Gulf War: Kurds and Water', Middle East Policy, vol. 5, no. 2, May 1997, pp. 168-193, on pp. 171-173, 176, 183; Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (note 9 above), pp. 12-13.

14 Alan George, `Syria and Iraq Threaten Anti-European Action', Middle East, vol. 255, April 1996, p. 21.

15 Charlie Cray, `Export Credit Agencies Out of Control', Multinational Monitor, vol. 21, no. 3, March 2000, p. 22; `Turkey's Latest Controversial Dam', The Economist, 29 April 2000.

16 Ibrahim Erdogan, `Avrupa Toplulugu'na Tam Üyelik Türkiye'nin Firat ve Dicle Su Politikasini Ne Sekilde Etkiler?' [How Does Full Membership in the European Union Affect Turkey's Euphrates and Tigris Water Policies?], in Bülent Gökay, ed., Türkiye Avrupa'nin Neresinde? Gümrük Birligi Anlasmasinin Düsündürdükleri [Where Is Turkey in Europe? Impact of the Customs Union] (Ankara: Aytac, 1997), pp. 107-123, on pp. 121-122; Xinhua News Agency (note 2 above).

17 Compiled from Olson (note 13 above), p. 179; Serdar Alyamaç, `Heading Home to an Economic Wasteland', Turkish Daily News, 31 May 2000; Status Report (note 3 above), p. 10.

18 On the Sèvres issue, see Henri J. Barkey & Graham E. Fuller, Turkey's Kurdish Question (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998), pp. 9, 34-36, 142; Dietrich Jung & Wolfango Piccoli, `The Turkish-Israeli Alignment: Paranoia or Pragmatism?', Security Dialogue, vol. 31, no. 1, March 2000, pp. 91-104, on p. 93.

19 Nippon Koei Co. Ltd. & Yüksel Proje A.S. (note 4 above), pp. 9-10, 13.

20 Derived from Status Report (note 3 above), pp. 7-9, 13-16.

21 Kolars in Biswas (note 5 above), pp. 67-68, 70-75; Erdogan (note 16 above), pp. 118-119.

22 The 1955 US Johnston Plan for solving Jordan River Basin water disputes is discussed in Aaron Wolf, `Principles for Confidence-Building Measures in the Jordan River Watershed', in Iwao Kobori & Michael H. Glantz, eds, Central Eurasian Water Crisis: Caspian, Aral, and Dead Seas (New York: United Nations University Press, 1998), pp. 125-153, on pp. 128-129. The other information comes from Kolars & Mitchell (note 5 above), pp. 25-26; Howard A. Reed, `Turgut Özal', in John L. Esposito, ed., The Oxford Encyclopedia of the Modern Islamic World (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995), pp. 276-278; Scheumann (note 10 above), p. 122.

23 The government study is mentioned in Kolars & Mitchell (note 5 above), pp. 291, 294-295.

24 A figure that was often cited was that water could be desalinated for $0.60/m³; against that estimate, a US consultancy firm that made a feasibility study in 1987 calculated that the $0.84-1.07/m³ cost of piped Turkish water would be one-third that of desalination. See Robins (note 7 above), pp. 96-98, 101-113; and Bilen (note 6 above), pp. 168-173.

25 Malin Falkenmark, `The Massive Water Scarcity Now Threatening Africa: Why Isn't It Being Addressed?', Ambio, vol. 18, no. 2, 1989, cited in Robin Clarke, Water: The International Crisis (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1993), pp. 66, 78.

26 Cited in Gruen (note 1 above), p. 3.

27 Taken from Mehmet Tomanbay, `Sharing the Euphrates: Turkey', Research & Exploration, Special Water Issue, November 1993, pp. 52-61, on p. 54; Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (note 9 above), pp. 2-3; Bilen (note 6 above), pp. 93-94, 97-98.

28 Kolars in Biswas (note 5 above), p. 75, says that the estimate did not incorporate reservoir evaporation and conveyance losses, but that nonetheless it dovetails roughly with his estimate of 10.8 km³ for a smaller area.

29 Beschorner (note 9 above), p. 44.

30 Mehmet Gölhan, `Welcoming Address', in Bagis (note 4 above), pp. 7-12, on p. 9.

31 See proposals of Hillel Shuval, `Proposals for Cooperation in the Management of the Transboundary Water Resources Shared by Israel and Her Neighbors', and of Boaz Wachtel, `The “Peace Canal” Plan: A New Model for the Distribution and Management of Water Resources and a Catalyst for Cooperation in the Middle East', in Bagis (note 4 above), pp. 289-300 and pp. 389-404, respectively.

32 Quoted in Gruen (note 1 above), p. 2.

33 Olson (note 13 above), p. 183; Lale Sariibrahimoglu, `Barak Advocates Water Purchases From Israel', Turkish Daily News, 13 February 2000.

34 US State Department, Daily Press Briefing, January 12 2000, available at http://secretary.state.gov; and `Solution With Turkey for the Water Problem', Milliyet, 14 January 2000, available at http://www.mfa.gov.tr.

35 Erdogan (note 16 above), pp. 110-111, 114-115; Commission of the European Communities, COM (2000) 219 Final (Brussels, 5 June 2000), pp. 1-119, on pp. 22-23, available at http://europa.eu.int/eur-lex.

36 On Demirel's background, see Kolars & Mitchell (note 5 above), pp. 25-26.

37 Turkish State Water Works, Manavgat River Water Supply Project (Ankara, 1999); interview conducted at Turkish State Water Works on 10 October 2000.

38 `Water Sales Could Boost Turkey's Clout', Wall Street Journal, 31 July 2000. The joint Israeli Infrastructure Ministry-Finance Ministry's `Request for Information (RFI) on the Issue of Supply of Drinking Water from Manavgat - Turkey' can be found at http://www.mof.gov.il.

39 On the $0.61 estimate and Turkish counterarguments, see `Water Sales' (note 38 above); `Israeli Delegation Meets with Turkish Officials to Discuss Water', Turkish Daily News, 20 June 2000. Present cost is cited in Gruen (note 1 above), p. 17. The $0.48 and $0.69 estimates come from Masahiro Murakami, `Alternative Strategies in the Inter-State Regional Development of the Jordan Rift Valley', in Kobori & Glantz (note 22 above), pp. 154-178.

40 The project's negligible initial profitability and denial that Manavgat water's base cost lies below $0.10 per cubic meter were mentioned in separate interviews conducted with officials at the Turkish State Water Works on 7 June and 10 October 2000.

41 Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (note 9 above), pp. 21-23.

42 Scheumann (note 10 above), p. 128.

43 Quoted in Ali Ihsan Bagis, `Turkey's Hydropolitics of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin', Water Resources Development, vol. 13, no. 4, 1997, pp. 567-581, on p. 577.

44 Erdogan (note 16 above), pp. 110-111; Commission of the European Communities (note 35 above), p. 23.

45 World Commission on Dams, Dams and Development: A New Framework for Decision-Making (London & Sterling, VA: Earthscan, November 2000), pp. 256, 316; available at http://www.dams.org.

46 On support for, or interest in, GAP from Argentina, China, and France, see The Economist (note 15 above); and Jörg Barandat & Aytül Kaplan, `International Water Law: Regulations for Cooperation and the Discussion of the International Water Convention', in Scheumann & Schiffler (note 10 above), pp. 11-29, on p. 21.