It’s not my consensus: Motivated reasoning and the sources of scientific illiteracy

Abstract

Individuals who provide incorrect answers to scientific knowledge questions have long been considered scientifically illiterate. Yet, increasing evidence suggests that motivated reasoning, rather than ignorance, may explain many of these incorrect answers. This article uses novel survey measures to assess two processes by which motivated reasoning might lead to incorrect personal beliefs: motivated individuals may fail to identify the presence of a scientific consensus on some issue or they may recognize a consensus while questioning its veracity. Simultaneously looking at perceptions of what most scientists say and personal beliefs, this study reveals that religiosity and partisanship moderate the extent to which Americans identify scientific consensuses and assert beliefs that contradict their perceptions of consensus. Although these pathways predict the scope of disagreement with science for each of 11 issues, the relative prevalence of each process depends on both the scientific issue and motivational pathway under examination.