A robust neural network with random effects for subject-specific prediction of clustered count data

Abstract

There is a growing interest in subject-specific predictions using neural networks, as large-scale biomedical data often exhibit dependency due to high-cardinality categorical features, which have been largely overlooked by traditional neural network frameworks. This article proposes a novel hierarchical likelihood learning framework that captures both nonlinear overall effects and subject-specific effects by incorporating gamma random effects into Poisson neural networks. The global maximizer of the proposed objective function yields maximum likelihood estimators for fixed parameters and best unbiased predictors for random effects. The proposed framework provides a robust end-to-end algorithm for clustered biomedical count data, in the sense that the corresponding estimating equations remain unbiased even when the random-effects distribution is misspecified. To enhance learning efficiency, we introduce an adjustment procedure for the random effects and variance component. Extensive simulation studies and real data analyses demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the proposed method for clustered biomedical count data. The proposed method achieves competitive predictive performance in terms of mean squared Pearson error and mean deviance across various random-effects distributions and real-world datasets.