A multistate approach for the study of interventions on an intermediate time-to-event in health disparities research

Abstract

We propose a novel methodology to quantify the effect of stochastic interventions for a non-terminal intermediate time-to-event on a terminal time-to-event outcome. Investigating these effects is particularly important in health disparities research when we seek to quantify inequities in the timely delivery of treatment and its impact on patients’ survival time. Current approaches fail to account for time-to-event intermediates and semi-competing risks arising in this setting. Under the potential outcome framework, we define causal contrasts relevant in health disparities research and provide identifiability conditions when stochastic interventions on an intermediate non-terminal time-to-event are of interest. Causal contrasts are estimated in continuous time within a multistate modeling framework and analytic formulae for the estimators of the causal contrasts are developed. We show via simulations that ignoring censoring in intermediate and/or terminal time-to-event processes or ignoring semi-competing risks may give misleading results. This work demonstrates that a rigorous definition of the causal effects and joint estimation of the terminal outcome and intermediate non-terminal time-to-event distributions are crucial for valid investigation of interventions and mechanisms in continuous time. We employ this novel methodology to investigate the role of delaying treatment uptake in explaining racial disparities in cancer survival in a cohort study of colon cancer patients.