Imagining the future,acting in the present: do newly arrived migrant students’ imagined educational trajectories guide their actions in the present?

Abstract

The sociology of imagined futures is a growing field of research with a need for empirical as well as theoretical exploration. Theoretically, our article is situated in interpretive sociology and sociology of time, theorising on how future orientation may shape actions and agency in the present. Our analysis is grounded in cognitive dimensions of projectivity to identify variations in imagined educational trajectories. Empirically, we build on a qualitative interview study with newly arrived migrant students between 16 and 19 years old. Two primary trajectories are discerned: untroubled trajectory, characterised by long-term planning, expanding opportunities, and active agency; and uncertain trajectory, marked by a short-term focus, lack of knowledge about the educational system, and a passive stance toward the future. These primary trajectories are further divided into three subtrajectories with distinct properties. The analysis extends the theoretical framework by proposing ‘plausibility’ as an additional cognitive dimension of projectivity. The study demonstrates how projected future trajectories shape students’ present actions, revealing that untroubled trajectories are linked to opportunities, while uncertain trajectories are associated with disadvantages, thereby refining previous research on NAMS's educational experiences and interpretations of their educational prospects.

Keywords

agency educational trajectories imagined futures newly arrived migrant students projectivity

Introduction

This article is situated in the emergent and growing field of research, the sociology of imagined futures, by which is meant ‘sociological work that analytically engages with perceptions of the future, addressed, for instance, as expectations, aspirations, goals, forecasts, hopes or fears’ (Suckert, 2022: 396, italics in original). Previous research on sociology of future(s) encompasses issues such as inequality, agency, social coordination, social identities and societal change (for review, see Beckert and Suckert, 2021; Suckert, 2022). Although there is a growing interest in research on temporal orientation towards the future, the future is most often not object to theoretical concerns (Suckert, 2022; Mische, 2009; 2014). Suckert identifies three research areas where the future is a focal point of interest in a specific domain: sociology of expectations, economic sociology, and research on educational aspirations. As our study concerns newly arrived migrant youths’ projections of educational and occupational trajectories in their present situation as well as in the future, it is related to the last domain. Our main interest is, though, not in aspirations only, as we are focusing on the contents of imagined educational trajectories (cf. Beckert and Suckert, 2021) and how perceptions of future educational trajectories may shape actions in the present (cf. Suckert, 2022; Mische, 2009).

Furthermore, issues of migration have increasingly become an area of inquiry in sociological research on imagined futures (Griffiths et al., 2013; Robertson, 2019; Beckert and Suckert, 2021). Migration is often identified as a ‘critical moment’ or transitional point that forces individuals to reflect on the future and make it more explicit (Selimos, 2018; Cojocaru, 2016) and thus becomes more accessible to sociological analysis (Suckert, 2022). Mische (2014) argues that projected futures can be best studied in ‘sites of hyper-projectivity’ (2014: 438), that is, settings where the day-to-day routines are interrupted and reflections and talk about alternative pathways are brought to the fore. Hence, following other scholars we view migration as a temporally embedded process evoking orientation to the future, involving a degree of uncertainty as migrants ‘re-imagine [their] future and adjust their trajectory’ (Cojocaru, 2016: 7; McGhee et al., 2012).

Although our study relates to research on educational aspirations and trajectories, its primary focus is broader, focusing on the cognitive dimensions of imagined educational trajectories and how they shape action in the present. Theoretically, our study is situated within the emergent field of the sociology of imagined futures and the sociology of time (cf. Beckert and Suckert, 2021; Suckert, 2022). Tavory and Eliasoph proposed that ‘since any action has a temporal dimension, projected futures are crucial for any discussion of action and agency’ (2013: 910) which is widely supported by scholars in both classic (Mead, 1932; Schütz, 1969) and contemporary social sciences (Emirbayer and Mische, 1998; Mandich, 2020; Mische, 2009). Mische's (2009) discussion of projectivity has guided our research. We acknowledge that temporalities – the past, present and future – are interrelated in contingent and emergent processes of meaning-making (cf. Flaherty and Fine, 2001). However, this should not be understood as a linear temporal logic that predicts the future based on the past and present (Halford and Southerton, 2023).

Following these scholars, we draw on a qualitative study of newly arrived migrant students (NAMS), between 16 and 19 years old, in introductory education to explore how they imagine their future educational trajectories and how these projections have an influence on their actions in the present situation. This article explicitly aims to contribute to the temporal conceptualisation of educational trajectories and to elaborate the theoretical understanding of how imagined futures may shape actions in the present situation.

Aspirations and imagined futures of immigrant youth

There is a significant body of research exploring the educational aspirations of migrant youth, often reporting high academic aspirations and school engagement (Kao and Tienda, 1995; Portes and Rumbaut, 2006; Stevenson and Willott, 2007; Suárez-Orozco et al., 2008). Contrary to the basic premise of this kind of research, where aspirations are assumed to positively correlate with later attainment (Beckert and Suckert, 2021), migrant students’ high aspirations are not accompanied by high achievement, resulting in an immigrant aspiration paradox (Salikutluk, 2016) or attitude-achievement paradox (Holmberg et al., 2018). For NAMS in ages 16–19 who have recently migrated to a new country, the paradox is evident in their high academic aspirations but low transition rates into upper secondary education, exacerbating the achievement gap between immigrant and native students (Lundahl and Lindblad, 2018; Behr and Fugger, 2020; Emery et al., 2023). This line of research relies mostly on surveys and longitudinal studies where variations in aspirations and the multitude of future orientations are obscured. Qualitative research has however indicated that there is variation in educational attainment and educational trajectories of migrant youth (Sarstrand Marekovic, 2016; Marekovic and Närvänen, 2023b; Emery et al., 2020; Ljunggren and Orupabo, 2020) that need to be explored further.

The transition from compulsory to post-compulsory education is often regarded as a turning point at which structural inequalities may be exacerbated or revoked as young people are forced to make choices about their educational trajectories (Cuconato et al., 2016; Grytnes, 2011). Navigating this choice requires an understanding of the cultural codes and institutional opportunities available. NAMS in introductory education who have entered a new educational system encounter barriers that impact on their possibility to make informed choices about their future educational trajectories. The unfamiliarity with the educational system in the host country can be conceptualised as an information deficit (Beicht and Walden, 2019) that has been shown to be decisive for the transition to upper secondary education for NAMS. In their study, Emery et al. (2020) investigated the differences in formal and informal knowledge of the Dutch educational system, as well as the sense of entitlement, among NAMS who transitioned to either a general (theoretical) track or a vocational track. Students on the general track demonstrated practical knowledge of navigating the educational system and exhibited assertiveness in pursuing ambitious educational choices, contrasting with vocational track students. These disparities were attributed to differences in cultural capital and migration experiences. Emery et al. (2020) research thus offers insight into the complexities of NAMS’ educational trajectories and the need for in-depth studies to capture the variety of perspectives, choices, practices, and social relations leading to different choices and actions. The educational aspirations and future orientations of NAMS present an important case for such analyses.

Extant research on NAMS in introductory education reveals experiences of educational stagnation (Sharif, 2017) and feelings of being held back in a state of ‘permanent temporariness’ (Skowronski, 2013). Nilsson Folke (2018) explores the discrepancy between lived and imagined school careers of NAMS. Instead of making progress, NAMS experience being ‘stuck’ or ‘blocked’, leading to heightened uncertainty about the future, which in turn affects their motivation and causes stress. These insights contribute important knowledge about the educational experiences of NAMS. However, they do not explore how these experiences shape their actions in the present situation or the variations in their imagined futures. There is thus a notable absence of theoretical and empirical research regarding NAMS perceptions and representations of the future. Existing research, particularly that addresses migrant experiences in general, has predominantly concentrated on mnemonic practices such as reconstructing the past in relation to the present, remembrance, or nostalgia, rather than on exploring imagined futures and their potential implications for actions and agency (Griffiths et al., 2013).

Introductory education for NAMS in Sweden

To understand how imagined futures may shape actions in the present, it is also necessary to pay attention to the institutional context (Mische, 2009), in this case the educational system in general and introductory education for NAMS in particular. This context may constrain or create opportunities for action as NAMS negotiate their plans and aspirations within the conditions of the institutions (Robertson, 2019).

Sweden has been characterised as a ‘universalistic transition regime’ (Walther, 2006), where tracking is introduced late in the educational process. Changes initiated in 2011 however, reinforced the distinction between vocational and theoretical upper secondary school programmes (Alexandersson, 2011; Lundahl et al., 2010) which, according to some scholars, can accentuate the significance of this educational transition point in the reproduction of social inequalities (Cuconato et al., 2016; Walther et al., 2015).

Schooling for 16- to 19-year-old NAMS without Swedish compulsory school graduation is provided in Language Introduction Programmes (LIP) at local upper secondary schools. The LIP is an ‘alternative pathway’ (Loeb and Wass, 2015) that emphasises learning Swedish to enable NAMS’ transition to upper secondary school or other further education (Swedish National Agency for Education, 2013). While attending a LIP, students are expected to acquire the qualifications necessary for educational advancement. For both vocational and theoretical tracks, passing grades in the three core subjects of Swedish or Swedish as a second language, mathematics, and English are required. A minimum of five more passing grades is needed for admission to vocational programmes, and nine for theoretical programmes. Consequently, NAMS must quickly learn about the Swedish school system, acquire the language, earn the necessary grades, and compete with students from Swedish compulsory school for admission to upper secondary programmes (Marekovic and Närvänen, 2023a).

There is no formal time limit for attending the LIP, rather, the time is contingent on educational achievements and teachers’ assessment and is thus unpredictable (Marekovic and Närvänen, 2023a). The institutional aim is for a transition within 2 years (Swedish National Agency for Education, 2013), but statistics show that less than a third of LIP students advance to an upper secondary programme even within 3 years (Lundahl and Lindblad, 2018). However, a clear time limit is the cut-off age for admittance to upper secondary school. The year students turn 20 years old, they are no longer eligible for upper secondary school and are referred to adult education or other forms of training (Government bill, 2008/09:199). This age criterion heightens the risk of an interrupted educational trajectory by closing off access to upper secondary school, while simultaneously creating a sense of urgency for the student to progress. More knowledge of NAMS’ interpretations, negotiations, and agency in introductory education is thus imperative, not least because of the emphasis on post-compulsory education as a necessity for future employment and inclusion in society (Aaltonen, 2012; Helgøy et al., 2019).

On temporalities, actions and imagined trajectories: A theoretical framework

Theoretically, this article is situated in the sociology of imagined futures and the sociology of time. Our point of departure is Mische's (2009) theoretical discussion on how imagined futures shape social action in the present. Building on the legacy of sociological classics such as Mead (1932) and Schütz (1969), Mische turns to Mead's discussion on the temporal embeddedness and multiple temporal horizons of social action and Schütz's concept of project.

Mead highlights the individual's ability to engage imaginatively and reflexively in multiple, intertwined temporal horizons of the past, present, and future. In this understanding, the past does not determine the present, but is rather a resource that can be used selectively to interpret the present, and the future is a horizon of possibilities and expectations. The locus of action is always in the present (Mead, 1932), but the action is future-oriented; anticipation of the future guides the lines of action in the present (Flaherty and Fine, 2001). In accord with Mead, Schütz (1969) emphasises anticipation and sense-making in constructing the future. In this the concept project – or projecting – is important, pointing out that capacity to project the future presupposes an ability to anticipate the imagined future as already accomplished (Suckert, 2022; Emirbayer and Mische, 1998). Mische argues that projectivity is not to be confused with instrumental action or rational choice. Instead, she stresses the temporal significance of conceiving the future possibilities imagined by an actor in the present as creative, multiple, emergent, or even contradictory. When the present situation changes, so may the anticipated future. In this respect Mead's discussion on the temporal embeddedness and multiple temporal horizons of social action and Schutz's concept of project are complementary (Mische, 2009; cf. Reiter, 2003).

Imagined futures are more than just flights of fancy. They may vary from dreams loosely grounded in action to concrete plans and specific goals integrated in action and ‘transforming the future to the present’ (Shirani and Henwood, 2011: 50; Adam and Groves, 2007; Brannen and Nilsen, 2002). The imagined future, or projectivity, is the ‘forward-looking dimension of agency’ (Mandich, 2020: 682; Emirbayer and Mische, 1998), grounded on interpretation in the present (Suckert, 2022). In line with Perinbanayagam (1985), we argue that alternative lines of action are also judged based on their plausibility, in relation to what is conceived as possible to achieve (cf. Beckert, 2013). Both institutional and interactional validation are relevant here. Institutions such as schools provide not only possible educational tracks but also validations of plausibility of aspired trajectories. However, such judgements must also be interactionally validated. An absence of such validations may result in changes of imagined trajectories and lines of action (Perinbanayagam, 1985). Plausibility is closely related to Emirbayer and Mische's discussion of practical evaluation, an actor's ability to assess alternative lines of action (1998).

As Mische (2009) notes, we need to know more about the character of future projections and how they may form patterns that are related to particular actions or effects in the present: ‘A focus on future projections can help us make a link between cognition and action in a manner that has so far been neglected in the sociological literature’ (Mische, 2009: 694). In the analysis, we drew specifically on the cognitive dimensions of projectivity suggested by Mische (2009). In this approach, it is emphasised that projections do not predict future outcomes, that is, projectivity is not to be confused with predictability (Halford and Southerton, 2023).

Inspired by Walther et al., we regard the imagined educational trajectories as ‘structured by socioeconomic factors and institutional structures of formal education, while they are, at the same time, appropriated by individuals in their biographical constructions’ (2015: 351). There is thus a dialectic relationship between structure (institutionally predefined trajectories) and agency (individual choices, interpretations, and meaning-making) in the construction of educational trajectories (Cuconato et al., 2016; Emirbayer and Mische, 1998). Mead emphasised the possibility of multiple futures and the importance of recognising the effect of interpretive practices and meaning-making in social actions (Flaherty and Fine, 2001; Emirbayer and Mische, 1998; Mead, 1932). Accordingly, imagined educational trajectories are here understood as situated interpretations of future possibilities that may shape the actions taken (or not) in the present.

Setting, data, and method

The study was conducted in three public upper secondary schools offering LIPs in one of the largest cities in Sweden. All NAMS aged 16‒19 years are placed in one ‘reception school’ on their arrival to the city. This school has the most LIP classes for both beginners and advanced language learners, offering eight subject areas. However, its offerings are inadequate for students wishing to meet the entry requirements for theoretical programmes. The other two schools provide only advanced LIP classes but offer students the 12 subjects they need to apply for theoretical programmes. The organisation of the LIP thus varies among the schools.

Access to schools was gained through contact with the school heads, who were provided comprehensive information about the project. Tutors and students were then approached by one of the researchers, who visited each school for 3‒5 days to ensure that both staff and students had opportunities to ask questions about the project. Spending several days at each school allowed the researcher to engage in informal conversations with students during class and recess, which clarified her position as an ‘outsider’ and independent researcher at the school (Braun and Clarke, 2013). All participants were informed of the aims of the project, their right to withdraw from the study, and how the results would be used to encourage their consent to participate in the project. The researcher approached the interviews with sensitivity, acknowledging that participants might have experienced trauma related to migration. A non-probing approach was adopted, allowing participants to decide how much of their migration experiences and background to share. Although this represents a limitation in our data, we chose this approach for ethical reasons. To protect anonymity, participants were given fictitious names, and details such as the city and names of the schools were omitted. These measures were implemented in accordance with the project's overall ethical considerations. The project has obtained formal ethical approval from the Regional Ethical Review Board in Sweden.

The participants were aged 16‒19 years, had lived in Sweden for 1.5‒3 years at the time of the interviews, and had received permanent residence status. The participants had migrated from countries in Asia, Africa, and Eastern Europe for reasons including family reunification, economic and labour market conditions, and escape from persecution, oppression, or war. Some had migrated with their family, others had reunited with relatives already living in Sweden, and yet others were unaccompanied youth. The participants’ prior school experiences ranged from almost none to having completed compulsory school or even some upper secondary grades. The background characteristics did not reveal distinct patterns in the analysis, except for indications that gender and age could be relevant. However, due to variation and the limitation of the material, we were unable to fully explore these patterns.

Following Lamont and Swidler (2014), we see interviews as particularly appropriate in studies of social experiences, representations, and imagined meanings of activities. Data were therefore gathered through semi-structured open-ended interviews covering three main topics: experience of school before arrival in Sweden; experiences of the Swedish introductory education; and imagined futures, especially in education and working life. Questions about social relations were included in all three topics. The students were encouraged to choose whether to participate individually, in small groups, or both. In total, 23 interviews (12 individual, 11 group) were conducted with 36 students of which 10 were girls and 26 boys, mirroring the proportion of NAMS in Sweden (Swedish National Agency for Education, 2017). All students were enrolled in advanced language introduction classes and had practised using Swedish for at least 1 year prior to the interview. The interviews, lasting from 45 min to 2 h, were digitally recorded and transcribed.

We conducted thematic analysis using the guidelines proposed by Braun and Clarke (2006), starting with inductive analysis, reading and rereading all interviews, and coding the material on a descriptive level. We identified students’ described aspirations and interpretations of their future educational and occupational trajectories as subjects of specific interest. The significance of temporalities became obvious. In the next phase, the coding was reduced, and only relevant data sets were chosen. During the analysis we discussed theoretical ideas and wrote theoretically informed memos, moving towards a sophisticated inductionism (O’Reilly, 2012) that resulted in a preliminary categorisation of perceived educational trajectories. Consequently, the unit of analysis is the ‘imagined educational trajectory’, not the individual student, which means that the focus is on the contents of the trajectories, that is, following Beckert and Suckert (2021) the variety of the features that characterise the trajectories. In the last phase, the categorisation was systematised and refined using Mische's cognitive dimensions of projectivity (2009: 699 ff.), which revealed how the dimensions distinctly vary between the trajectories identified in the material. In this phase, the analysis centred on the temporal conceptualisation of different imagined educational trajectories. Central to the analysis were the dimensions; reach (the time horizon that varies from short to middle and long); clarity (concerning the degree of detail with which the future is imagined); expandability of future projections (expanding or contracting); volition (passive or active stance toward the future, that is, the influence the actor holds in regard to the impending future); sociality (pointing out if and how the future projections are related to other people); as well as breadth (the range of possibilities considered). The analysis thus also elaborates the theoretical understanding of how the different imagined trajectories shape social acts and agency in the present situation.

Results

We identified two main categories of imagined trajectories, untroubled and uncertain, with three subcategories: ‘untroubled open’ and ‘untroubled projected’ under the untroubled category and ‘uncertain reverted’ under the uncertain category. The untroubled trajectory was identified in the narratives of thirteen students and further divided into two subtypes: ‘untroubled open’ (nine students) and ‘untroubled projected’ (four students). All students in this category were 18 years old or younger, with only two girls represented – both in the ‘untroubled open’ subtype. The uncertain trajectory was the most prevalent pattern, identified in interviews with nearly two-thirds of the students (23 in total), including eight girls, with half of this group aged 19.

The analysis sheds light on how an imagined future trajectory might shape a person's actions (or inaction) in the present. In the sections below, we present the common core of the two main categories and the distinguishing characteristics (drawn from Mische, 2009) of each subcategory. According to the logic of the analysis, the subcategories include all the characteristics of their main categories but are distinguished by additional properties. Therefore, narratives from one student may appear in the descriptions of both a main category and one of its subcategories.

Untroubled trajectories

The narratives characteristics of this trajectory have an explicit orientation to the future focused on successful studies, further education, and bright prospects. The students describe high academic or occupational aspirations, and many look forward to tertiary education, often in professional fields such as medicine or engineering. This temporal orientation fits into Mische's (2009) middle or long ‘reach’, as the time horizon is extended to a more distant future. In describing this trajectory, the students emphasised their migration to Sweden as a favourable turning point in their life course that offered new opportunities and educational pathways, previously out of reach.

Everybody has dreams […]. We have all invested in our education and now we have a chance. That's why Sweden is a very important country. And it's more developed than our country, so now we have a chance and just have to push for it. (Ibrahim)

The untroubled trajectory is thus also characterised by its ‘expandability’ (Mische, 2009) into new opportunities and educational paths made possible through migration. Typically, when interpreting their present situation and future life chances, the students emphasised their own intellectual resources and abilities. They were confident that their past and present school successes increased the likelihood of realising their educational objectives which made them feel untroubled about their future education and opportunities.

Schoolwork isn’t difficult for me. I don’t need help with homework, I can get by. Many people say that learning a new language as well as many new subjects is hard, but, no, it's not difficult. […] Two months ago, I got a report, [and] I think I was the best in the class. (Josef)

Josef's statement mirrors the students’ confidence in their intellectual abilities and future achievements, grounded in part on their actual grades, the pace of their progress, and favourable comparisons with other students in the LIP. Interactions with teachers and guidance counsellors in the LIP were another source of confirmation:

My idea was to apply to a particular school, but the guidance counsellor said, ‘No, it's better that you choose another school. You wouldn’t like to study at a school for low achievers. We will choose something else, on a higher level’. (Ilirijan)

This passage highlights the importance of confirmation in terms of institutional as well as interactional validation, through school successes and positive feedback, to a student's belief in the plausibility (Perinbanayagam, 1985) and credibility (Emirbayer and Mische, 1998; Beckert, 2013) of the imagined trajectory. Those assessed as high achievers could also accelerate their studies and move from the beginners’ class to the advanced level after only a few months. Others describing an untroubled trajectory took their grades at the normal pace but emphasised the importance of keeping on track and finishing the classes as expected.

These students’ orientation towards studying and focusing on their future life chances is also obvious in their reported efforts to enhance their grades through hard work. They commonly underlined the time they spent on homework. Characteristically, they had also accurate knowledge of the Swedish school system and grade requirements to make informed choices about their further education, including which vocational or theoretical programmes to apply for, and at which schools. A high degree of ‘volition’, influencing the future by acting towards it in the present situation (Mische, 2009), is thus a core characteristic of untroubled trajectories.

In the following section, we deepen the analysis of the untroubled open and untroubled projected subtrajectories by distinguishing their constituent characteristics and how they differ in relation to action in the present situation.

Untroubled open trajectory

Like the main untroubled trajectory, this path explicitly emphasises the future. It focuses more, however, on the current LIP and the student's approaching transition to upper secondary school than on long-term plans, which points to a middle reach time horizon (Mische, 2009). In this subcategory, students generally described their present situation and the LIP achievements necessary for admittance to upper secondary school in great and clear detail but were vaguer about their post-upper-secondary futures. A typical strategy was to apply to several different upper secondary schools and various theoretical programmes. The students described detailed and strategic step-by-step plans for navigating through the LIP and achieving the grades required for a theoretical upper secondary programme.

I go for natural sciences and Swedish language. I already have a good grade in math [B], so what I will do next year is to get an A. It means that during the first semester I can go for other subjects than math again. Swedish is the most important to be able to continue to upper secondary school, and I need to have high grades in natural sciences to be able to continue to study in a natural science programme. (Ilirijan)

This narrative demonstrates familiarity with the requirements of upper secondary school. Ilirijan's strategical planning shows an active stance toward the future and a deliberate effort to ensure a successful transition. This makes evident the student's ‘volition’, understood here as the influence an actor perceives themselves to hold over the impending future (Mische, 2009). At the same time, this volitional orientation is closely tied to the institutional context, as his planning is enabled by knowledge of the system's requirements and the transparency of these demands. Other deliberate plans described by the students included reading literature in English or Swedish and talking with Swedish-speaking peers. These were described as important ways to improve language skills and increase the chances of academic advancement, especially since LIP classes rarely shared school activities with Swedish students.

In this subcategory, conscious present actions and step-by-step short-term and middle-term plans are combined with a relatively open long-term perspective on a future that is not yet planned for in detail and will allow various educational and occupational alternatives. The subtrajectory is thus further characterised by a ‘breadth’ (Mische, 2009) of possible future outcomes, that is, multiple and contingent future options (cf. Perinbanayagam, 1985). A preferred occupation was described sometimes as a dream that might or might not come true, sometimes as the preferred alternative of more than one option, or sometimes in terms of broad general fields of study:

What I want to become is an astronomer. […] I’ve always been interested in space, what's out there. Because all we know is about our galaxy. We don’t know about other galaxies. If it doesn’t work out with becoming an astronomer, which I hope it does, I’m going to study medicine. (Aram)

Untroubled projected trajectory

The subcategory untroubled projected trajectory is mainly characterised, and distinguished from the untroubled open trajectory, by a tenacious approach to long-term goals. The narratives in this subcategory expressed a limited range of hoped-for occupations and usually focused on one specific goal, such as becoming a physician or an entrepreneur. A vital aspect of this trajectory is that both the present and the future are populated by important others. The future is thus socially embedded (Mische, 2009). For example, these students highly value the social meaning of their educational achievements, especially in the family:

I have a dream to become a physician in the future. That's why I study so much at home, I study a lot to pass the Swedish language, to pass the other subjects, to get to upper secondary school. […] I must study to become something in the future, to make my family proud of me. (Ahmed)

These students’ narratives of their imagined trajectories are typically anchored in their relations to significant others, usually family in Sweden or in other countries, who offer support in their present endeavours and inspiration to achieve their future goals. These students are also inspired by their past experiences, which they link to both their families and the future:

[I want to have] a safe life. When you have a safe life you can think about other things, other people. And I want those who depend on me or live with me to have a good life. I have planned to become a physician to be able to help others, not just myself. I want to help others because I have had hard times myself. (Josef)

A strong volition (Mische, 2009) and the integration of long-term goals with present social practices and actions are characteristic of this trajectory, in which practices are deliberately chosen to enhance future opportunities. The future is brought into the present through actions such as volunteering for associations for example Save the Children Sweden. Such actions are related to learning the cultural codes that rate such engagement as meritorious. Long-term goals for educational and occupational trajectories are thus integrated both with short-term planning and structuring schoolwork to achieve high grades and with engagement in leisure time activities that contribute to learning and future success. Middle-term planning includes knowing which subjects to choose, which are the ‘right’ schools for high achievers, and what grades are necessary to advance in accordance with the set long-term destination. The focus remains on the clearly articulated long-term goal, and present activities are chosen to support that goal. The main characteristic of this trajectory is thus ‘clarity’ (Mische, 2009), indicated by detailed short- to long-term planning and accurate knowledge of the intricacies of the Swedish school system. In terms of the dimension ‘breadth’, this subcategory is distinguished from the untroubled open trajectory by its concentration on a single goal rather than a set of alternatives.

Uncertain trajectories

A clear pattern in the interviews describing uncertain trajectories was the students’ lack of detailed knowledge of the formal educational system and the requirements for advancement:

[I need] twelve [grades], but I will only pass seven. […] But I don’t know why it is like this in Sweden. Why can’t you study twelve grades [at once]? […] I don’t know why they did it like that? Eight grades this year and then four, and then you don’t know. Then you can’t go nowhere… (Silvija)

Although Silvija aspires to enrol in a theoretical programme that requires twelve subjects, she is enrolled in a school that offers only eight. She expects to take four more classes during the next year but seems unaware that she should have been enrolled in a different school, that is, the ‘clarity’ (Mische, 2009) of the trajectory is obscured by a lack of understanding and accurate knowledge of the educational system and conditions of the LIP. Confusion about the formal educational expectations and the achievements necessary to advance is a recurrent pattern and characteristic of this trajectory:

They [the teachers] don’t explain anything. They won’t tell you anything, just that you didn’t pass the test. And they will place you in LIP again. And when you get the grade, they won’t explain why or how the grading system works. (Yara)

Yara's remark ‘[…] they will place you in LIP again’ shows that she is aware of a risk of reversion in the trajectory, that the chances of realising her earlier aspirations are declining or risk approaching closure. This is interpreted as a contraction of future possibilities, or lack of ‘expandability’ (Mische, 2009). Uncertainty about possible future trajectories hinders students’ progress, circumscribes the ‘reach’ of their projections to the present and the short-term future (Mische, 2009), and limits their capacity to plan for the future (cf. Suckert, 2022).

I have to think about it later. I don't want to stress about it now. First, I have to pass the language introduction course, and then I can think about what I will do in the future. I don't want to accumulate those problems in my head right now. (Milan)

Uncertain reverted trajectory

In this subcategory, the educational trajectory was not only at risk of reversion but had in fact reverted. These students had repeated LIP several times, usually due to failing the Swedish language courses. This was an actual closure of their chance to advance to upper secondary school and thus a lack of ‘expandability’ (Mische, 2009), representing a turning point in their trajectory as their educational advancement stalled. This trajectory is described as a backtrack in which time seems to stand still as the students take basically the same courses again and again. Their time horizon is therefore limited to the present as they make almost no progress. For older students with upper secondary education from their home countries or those who have had their schooling prolonged due to migration, the reversion is sometimes repeated several times:

[…] I don’t know how to say… [silence]… in Syria, I attended grade nine. I studied almost the whole year, but in the final two months [of the semester] there was a war, so we moved. Then I went to Iraq and studied again in grade nine. But in the final two months we moved here [to Sweden]. And this year I have studied grade nine [at LIP] and next year I will attend a preparatory programme at grade nine. In total it will be four years in grade nine [laughs]. […] It feels like a prison, like I’m in prison and I can’t get out. (Yara)

Yara's feeling of imprisonment can also be seen as a lack of control over the situation. Subsequently, the uncertain reverted trajectory is characterised by a lack of clearly expressed strategies for academic advancement. These students describe few or no possibilities to influence the direction of their future and limited control over their advancement:

It feels difficult for me because I get mad, but I can’t do anything about it. I don’t know what to do. Where can I go? What can I say? If, for example, I go to the headmaster, the headmaster will say ‘it's your teacher who will decide’. (Abdi)

Abdi describes feeling stripped of agency and influence over the pace and progress of his trajectory, which he experiences as lying in the hands of school professionals. The absence of institutional and interactional support constrains his ability to act. In Mische's (2009) terms, Abdi thus expresses low ‘volition’, that is, a passive stance towards the future, with little or no control or options to influence his situation.

This prolonged and repetitive educational trajectory also puts these students out of synch with expected life-course trajectories and transitions and those of their former classmates and friends:

I was born in 1995, so my generation will graduate from upper secondary school next year. But I will start upper secondary school next year. It is really difficult for me to accept that. (Milan)

The social meanings of migration in transnational relations are obvious as previously shared understandings of biographical futures and expected life course transitions are disrupted and the students feel themselves moving further away from their expected future. The social relationships with peers in the homeland become weakened as the time in the LIP is prolonged, leaving the students feeling socially detached (Mische, 2009) and off time compared to their age group. Repetitive time and contracting future options characterise descriptions of this subcategory, together with experiences of limited possibilities to influence the situation as well as a passive stance to action, i.e., low ‘volition’ (Mische, 2009).

Discussion and conclusion

This article aimed to advance the temporal conceptualisation of imagined educational trajectories and deepen the theoretical understanding of how imagined futures shape actions in the present. It is thus situated within the field of the sociology of imagined futures and the sociology of time (cf. Beckert and Suckert, 2021; Suckert, 2022).

Despite growing interest in educational aspirations, as one strand of the research field, few studies have explored variations in projected trajectories. Focusing on such variations, the analysis is grounded in sociological theorising on cognition, temporalities, and social acts, with particular attention to the cognitive dimensions of imagined futures. The cognitive dimensions proposed by Mische (2009) provide an important theoretical toolkit for studying imagined trajectories, offering clarity for both theoretical concepts and empirical analysis. Our contribution is the additional dimension, the grade of plausibility, which is validated through institutional and interactional credibility of desired future trajectories (Perinbanayagam, 1985; see also Beckert, 2013). Theorising aspirations and imagined trajectories, thus presupposes acknowledgment of the importance of how temporalities – the past, present and future – are interrelated in meaning-making processes (cf. Flaherty and Fine, 2001). This interrelatedness points to dynamic, contingent processes of meaning-making, and is not to be understood as a linear temporal logic of predictability of the future, grounded in the past and present (Halford and Southerton, 2023). The past, as experiences and memories, is always constructed and open to be reconstructed in light of the present and anticipations of the future (Flaherty and Fine, 2001; Olick and Robbins, 1998; Mead, 1932) just as the aspired futures may be reinterpreted in light of past experiences and the present situation (Halford and Southerton, 2023; Bazzani, 2023).

The nuanced empirical analysis called for in previous research is made possible by the systematic analysis of the cognitive dimensions of the trajectories. Our analysis identifies the characteristics of different trajectories and their connection to actions taken in the present. While the scope of our analysis is narrow, focusing on imagined educational trajectories as perceived by a specific group of young persons, NAMS, its contribution to research on aspirations and trajectories is broader. Taking into account the cognitive dimensions of imagined futures (including temporalities) and how they may shape action in the present is valuable and could be further explored in relation to other imagined trajectories, such as those in working life, family life, chronic illness and even the life course.

The distinction between the main trajectories, untroubled and uncertain, is striking. The untroubled trajectory is distinctive for its ‘expandability’; migration to Sweden and enrolment in the Swedish school system is seen as opening opportunities for further education. This ‘expandability’ is related to ‘reach’ (time horizon), as the untroubled trajectory is characterised by middle- to long-term objectives concerning transition to upper secondary education and professional life. A third characteristic of the untroubled trajectory, ‘volition’, refers to students’ active stance towards the future (Mische, 2009). Students who describe an untroubled trajectory make concrete plans to realise their aspirations through actions in the present as well as in middle- or long-term future, which demonstrates a high level of control and agency (Emirbayer and Mische, 1998). Our results highlight the importance of integrating imagined trajectories with present action, which we see as connected to Beckert's (2013) discussion of how expected future states are linked to action and gain emotional relevance through their practical significance. Certainty about one's life track is thus a common characteristic of the trajectory, as the imagined future is perceived as a field of realisable possibilities (Shirani and Henwood, 2011). Further characteristics of untroubled trajectories are continuity between the present and the future, which aligns with results from previous research on youth in general (e.g., Du Bois-Reymond, 1998; Facchini and Rampazi, 2009) and a high grade of plausibility through institutional and interactional validation by other students and school professionals (cf. Perinbanayagam, 1985). The main distinction between the untroubled open and untroubled projected subtrajectories is the ‘breadth’ (Mische, 2009) of the perceived trajectories, from open – including multiple – alternatives to narrow and focused, which results in different degrees of detail in long-term planning. These findings demonstrate a variation within a set of trajectories that point to opportunities – due to the Swedish school system – rather than to obstacles or disadvantage, that is rarely acknowledged in research on NAMS.

In contrast, the uncertain trajectory, which was also more prevalent among the interviewed students, is distinguished by a short time-horizon limited to the present situation and the very near future. Students described their futures as uncertain and lacking in clarity if they described them at all. These students’ uncertainty is related to their lack of knowledge of the formal school system, which constrain their abilities to plan and act in the present to affect their future educational trajectories (see also Kalalahti et al., 2017). Uncertain trajectories are thus characterised by a passive stance toward the future, or low ‘volition’ (Mische, 2009), limited influence and control over the present and future, and a risk of reversion and discontinuity (cf. Bunar and Juvonen, 2021). Instead, it is the school staff, as representatives of the educational system, who have the power to judge the expected progression and impact possible courses of action. Low expectations of progress, communicated by staff in interaction with students, constrain perceived possible futures and may reinforce teachers’ attempts to ‘cool out’ students’ aspirations when deemed beyond their reach (Marekovic and Närvänen, 2023a; Emery et al., 2023). As Bazzani puts it: ‘“the expected expectations” of other actors are fundamental to the formation of one's expectations’ (2023: 385). Clearly these results confirm that ‘depriving actors of their capacity to project the future impairs their agency’ (Suckert, 2022: 408). Uncertain trajectories in general may be associated with biographical uncertainty about the future that freezes these young people in the present (Facchini and Rampazi, 2009). In this respect, our results correspond with Sharif's (2017) and Skowronski's (2013) findings that NAMS perceive introductory education as stagnation and Nilsson Folke's results (2018) showing that introductory classes are characterised by disruption and suspension, followed by uncertainty about desired future educational careers. Distinctive to the subtrajectory uncertain reverted trajectory is the students’ actual experiences of repeating the LIP, rather than merely the fear of it. Such experiences decelerate the pace of their studies, restrict future opportunities, and may even result in the closure of their educational trajectories, thereby pointing to a low grade of plausibility in relation to perceptions of future opportunities. The risk of approaching the cut-off age for upper secondary education is a very salient point of reference in this trajectory.

These results can be associated with Reiter's (2003) discussion of disadvantaged youth due to the vulnerable position of NAMS. Reiter suggests that unfavourable positioning in the educational system decelerates students’ transitional processes. In addition to this, our analysis show that the deceleration of pace of studies evident in the uncertain reverted trajectory disrupts culturally scripted trajectories, putting the students out of sync with youth their age. Reiter (2003) emphasises that such deceleration is related to social injustice in the distribution of opportunities. Our results highlight the pronounced risk of the school system contributing to the reproduction of social disadvantage and the growing achievement gap between native and immigrant students (Mussino and Strozza, 2012; Nilsson Folke, 2018; Bunar and Juvonen, 2021). However, by highlighting variations in imagined trajectories and their relation to actions in the present, our results refine previous research on NAMS's educational experiences. This is illustrated in our analysis of the untroubled trajectory, where a vulnerable position does not necessarily imply a limited capacity to project (Schütz, 1969) future educational opportunities and act accordingly. A key characteristic of the untroubled trajectory is its alignment with the pre-ordered steps of a culturally scripted trajectory (Tavory and Eliasoph, 2013; cf. Adam, 1990). Moreover, since most previous research on the aspirations of immigrant youth has relied on quantitative approaches (Kao and Tienda, 1995; Salikutluk, 2016) our findings emphasise the importance of qualitative research in this field, particularly exploring critical educational transitional points, such as the passage to post-compulsory education (Cuconato et al., 2016).

Although our results expand upon previous research on NAMS's interpretations of possible educational trajectories and the relations of those interpretations to their present actions, we also see some limitations in our study. Our analysis suggests that gender and age may influence students’ imagined trajectories, warranting further research. The results indicate gendered differences across the trajectories: most girls described uncertain trajectories, whereas the untroubled trajectory was more commonly reported by boys. These discrepancies are important to acknowledge, as they may suggest gender-based disadvantages among NAMS, though they must be interpreted with caution. Substantiating such patterns would require a more systematic research design and, preferably, a larger sample. Age differences also emerged, with students nearing 20 years of age more frequently expressing uncertain trajectories. In our interpretation, this reflects how institutional regulations constrain both the imagined and the actual trajectories available to students. At the same time, the limitations of our data prevented a deeper exploration of these patterns, which could have provided valuable insights into how NAMS perceive their trajectories. Furthermore, because our sample consisted only of students currently attending the introductory programmes, we could not identify completely disrupted educational trajectories such as in dropouts. Although we did identify how students interpret opportunities and constraints and how this influences their present acts and agency, qualitative follow-up or longitudinal studies would enhance our knowledge of how NAMS navigate their educational trajectories over time and improve our understanding of the interrelated processes of past experiences, present situation, and projected future in relation to agency (Marekovic and Närvänen, 2023b). Longitudinal studies are especially needed to explore the educational, work-life, and broader life-course implications of being in alignment, or out of sync with, culturally scripted trajectories during youth and early adulthood. Our conceptualisation of different imagined trajectories could also be enriched by studying the experiences of adult migrants in higher education, including international student migrants (ISM). For theoretical generalisability of Mische's proposal of cognitive dimensions, studies of different trajectories, both for privileged and unprivileged groups and in various life phases is needed.

Footnotes

Acknowledgements

The authors express their sincere gratitude to the participants for sharing their experiences in this study. They also extend their thanks to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and feedback, which helped improve the manuscript.

ORCID iDs

Anna-Maria S. Marekovic

Anna Liisa Närvänen

Ethical considerations

This research has been approved by the Swedish Ethical Board as part of the larger research project ‘An educational dilemma: School Achievement and Multicultural Incorporation’, funded by the Swedish Research Council (grant number: 721-2009-6152). Information about the research project and its aim was given collectively as well as individually to the participants. Informed consent was obtained verbally before the interviews to ensure that the participants knew of their right to withdraw from the study and how the material would be used. For ethical reasons, the research participants are given fictitious names and neither the city nor the schools are identified.

Funding

The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was in part supported by the Swedish Research Council (grant number 721-2009-6152).

Declaration of conflicting interest

The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Availability of data and materials

The datasets used and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. All interview transcripts are in Swedish.

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