Rubrics for mortality: a real-world observational long-term lupus nephritis cohort

Abstract

In this study, we aimed to evaluate long-term patient survival according to demographic data, clinical manifestations of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and previous and current treatments, collected retrospectively. Patient selection required a minimum of four American College of Rheumatology revised criteria for SLE, biopsy-proven lupus nephritis (LN) available for reclassification according to the modified National Institutes of Health proposal for activity and chronicity indices and a minimum follow-up of at least three years since the last renal biopsy. Selection criteria were fulfilled in 25 patients followed for a median of 21 years. Based on the last renal biopsy, an equal number of patients were thus classified as class I/II and IV (n=8) and class III and V (n = 4). The mortality rate for LN was 14%. Having ever been diagnosed with glomerulonephritis (GN) type III or type IV but not class IV alone (p = 0.046), a higher histological chronicity index at the last renal biopsy (p = 0.022), not attaining renal remission one year after induction therapy (p = 0.004), end-stage renal disease on dialysis (p = 0.033) and the extra-renal Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Damage Index score (p = 0.017) were all significantly associated with mortality. Our results may provide important clues for strict observation protocols in particular categories of LN patients with long-standing disease.