Mechanistic model predicts a U-shaped relation of radon exposure to lung cancer risk reflected in combined occupational and US residential data

Abstract

A mechanistically based cytodynamic two-stage (CD2) cancer model was shown recently to predict both ecologic US county data and underground-miner data on lung-cancer mortality (LCM) vs radon concentration, indicating biological plausibility of the apparent negative dose-response relation exhibited by the ecologic data.⁶ To further investigate this hypothesis, the CD2 model was fitted to combine age-specific LCM data vs estimated radon-exposure in white females of age 40+ years in 2821 US counties during 1950-1954 using new estimates of county-specific mean residential radon exposure, and in five cohorts of underground nonsmoking miners. The negative association of radon levels and corresponding county-level LCM rates apparent in women dying in 1950-1954 (11% of whom never smoked) was also apparent in women of age 60+ years (5% of whom never smoked). The CD2 fit obtained to the combined residential and occupational data was found to predict the combined data using biologically plausible parameter values, and also to predict inverse dose-rate effects exhibited in nonsmoking miner data to which the CD2 model was not fit. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that residential radon exposure has a nonlinear U-shaped relation to LCM risk, and that current linear extrapolation models substantially overestimate such risk.