Two chironomid-inferred mean July air temperature reconstructions in the South Carpathian Mountains over the last 2000 years

Abstract

We present chironomid-based reconstructions of mean July air temperature changes over the last 2000 years from Lake Latoriței (1530 m a.s.l.) in the Southern Carpathians. A multi-proxy analysis was performed along a 58 cm long sediment core and two training sets were used for quantitative July air temperature reconstructions: the Eastern-European (EE, 212 lakes) and the Finnish-Polish-Carpathian (FPC, 273 lakes). The transfer functions had a coefficient of determination (r²) 0.88 and 0.91 with a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) 0.88°C and 1.02°C. Despite possible biases resulting from methodological problems and the ecological complexity of the chironomid response to both climatic and environmental changes, the agreement of the temperature reconstruction of Lake Latoriței with other alpine records suggests that the transfer function successfully reconstructed past summer temperatures between 750 and 1830 CE. Biases in the temperature reconstruction in the period before 750 and after 1830 CE were likely caused by increased abundance of rheophilic and semi-terrestrial chironomid species related to increased inflow activity before 750 CE and local land use changes after 1830 CE, which was also indicated by increasing deforestation and increasing lake productivity in the pollen and diatom records. Our results suggest that the region experienced a warm period between 750 and 1360 CE, and a cold period between 1360 and 1600 CE followed by fluctuating summer temperatures until 1830 CE. These events were associated with the so-called ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’ (MWP) and the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA), respectively. The inference models reconstructed a decrease in July air temperatures by 0.7°C–1.1°C during the LIA relative to the warmer MWP. We also demonstrated that the FPC training set gives better results, supporting that local/continental training sets are efficient to detect weak amplitude summer temperature changes in the Late-Holocene.