Did agriculture beget agriculture during the past several millennia?

Abstract

The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis posits that carbon emissions from ancient farming caused global warming by raising greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG) during the late-Holocene, in contrast to declining GHG during prior interglacials. Here, we explore whether this hypothesized pre-industrial anthropogenic climate change also fostered agriculture by creating more favorable growing conditions. We investigate this question using transient GCM experiments and the Cultivation Suitability Index, CSI, which quantifies farming potential based on climatic and soil factors. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulated the climate of the last 6000 years under two alternative forcing scenarios: (1) ACTUAL: orbital variations, historical land cover change, and observed GHG increase; and (2) NATURAL: orbital variations, fixed (natural) land cover, and expected natural GHG decline. The CSI was computed using CESM model output and observed soil properties. Ancient land clearance affected the simulated climate both biogeochemically (via carbon emissions) and biogeophysically (altered surface albedo and land-atmosphere energy fluxes). Biogeochemical effects generally dominated, as evidenced by a warmer (and slightly wetter) global climate in ACTUAL versus NATURAL by year 1850. But a few regions were cooler in ACTUAL, especially interior Eurasia during winter-spring, due to a higher surface albedo from cropland. The expansion of agriculture generally mitigated the orbitally induced decline in cultivation potential in boreal extratropics but worsened it in low latitudes. Our results suggest that ancient farming may have thus promoted a “push-pull” migration during the late-Holocene by inducing climate changes that encouraged a northward spread of agriculture.