Comment on ‘The Medieval Quiet Period’ – Implications arising from models of solar irradiance

Abstract

The recent re-evaluation of sunspot data by Clette et al. strongly suggests that the total solar irradiance (TSI) values for the late 20th century were (apart from 1960) not significantly different from those of the periods of sunspot maxima in the 1780s and the 1840s–1860s in the latter part of the ‘Little Ice Age’. In effect, the re-evaluation removed the previously supposed sunspot maximum of the ‘modern’ period. That means that the supposed recovery of TSI levels to values significantly higher in the late 20th century than those of the ‘Medieval Quiet (or Warm) Period’ (Figure 1 of Bradley et al., 2016) must be an artefact of the solar data. Orbital data suggest that the northern hemisphere cooled significantly over the past 2000 years, a trend confirmed by global temperature proxies. Variations about that trend were driven by small variations in sunspot activity that led to the warmth of the ‘Medieval Quiet (Warm) Period’ and the subsequent cooling of the ‘Little Ice Age’. In fact, the ‘Little Ice Age’ contained several short warm periods when sunspots were at a maximum. It seems highly likely given the new sunspot calibration that the mid- to late 20th century warming was yet another of these ‘Little Ice Age’ warm episodes (e.g. no different from that in 1780) superimposed on which was a growing additional warming supplied by expanding emissions of greenhouses gases.