Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

In the quantitative methodology literature, there now exists what can be considered a received account of the enigmatic phenomenon known as regression towards the mean (RTM), the origins of which can be traced to the work of Sir Francis Galton circa 1885. On the received account, RTM is, variably, portrayed as a ubiquitous, unobservable property of individual-level difference and change phenomena, a force that impacts upon the characteristics of individual entities, an explanation for difference and change phenomena, and a profound threat to the drawing of correct conclusions in experiments. In the current paper, we describe the most essential components of the received account, and offer arguments to the effect that the received account is a mythologization of RTM. In particular, we: (a) describe the scientific and statistical setting in which a consideration of RTM is embedded; (b) translate Galton’s discussion of RTM into modern statistical terms; (c) excavate a definition of the concept regression towards the mean from Galton’s discussion of RTM; and (d) employ the excavated definition to dismantle certain of the most essential components of the received account.

Keywords

bivariate distribution conditional mean function Galton mythology regression towards the mean

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Campell

Kenny

(1999). A primer on regression artifacts. New York, NY: Guilford.

Chesher

(1997). Non-normal variation and regression to the mean. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 6, 147–166.

Chuang-Stein

Tong

D.M.

(1997). The impact and implication of regression to the mean on the design and analysis of medical experiments. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 6, 115–128.

Copas

(1997). Using regression models for prediction: Shrinkage and regression to the mean. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 6, 167–183.

Dallal

(2000). The regression effect/The regression fallacy. Retrieved from http://www.jerrydallal.com/LHSP/regeff.htm

Danziger

(1990). Constructing the subject: Historical origins of psychological research. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.

Fitzmaurice

(2000). Regression to the mean. Nutrition, 16, 81–82.

Freedman

D.A.

(1985). Statistics and the scientific method. In Mason

W.M.

Fienberg

S.E.

(Eds.), Cohort analysis in social research: Beyond the identification problem (pp. 343–390). New York, NY: Springer-Verlag.

Friedman

(1992). Do old fallacies ever die? Journal of Economic Literature, 30, 2129–2132.

10.

Galton

(1885). Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature. Journal of the Anthropological Institute, 15, 246–263.

11.

Galton

(1889). Natural inheritance. London, UK: Macmillan.

12.

Guttman

(1977). What is not what in statistics. The Statistician, 26, 81–107.

13.

Karylowski

(1985). Regression toward the mean effect: No statistical background required. Teaching of Psychology, 12, 229–230.

14.

Kotz

Balakrishnan

Johnson

(2000). Continuous multivariate distributions: Vol. 1. Models and applications (2nd ed.). Toronto, Canada: Wiley.

15.

Lamiell

(1998). “Nomothetic” and “idiographic”: Contrasting Windelband’s understanding with contemporary usage. Theory & Psychology, 8, 23–38.

16.

Lin

Hughes

(1997). Adjusting for regression toward the mean when variables are normally distributed. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 6, 129–146.

17.

Mee

R.W.

Chua

T.C.

(1991). Regression toward the mean and the paired sample t-test. The American Statistician, 45, 39–42.

18.

Nesselroade

Stigler

Baltes

(1980). Regression toward the mean and the study of change. Psychological Bulletin, 88, 622–637.

19.

Orwell

(1949). Nineteen eighty-four: A novel. London, UK: Secker & Warburg.

20.

Ostermann

Willich

Ludtke

(2008). Regression toward the mean—A detection method for uknown population mean based on Mee & Chua’s algorithm. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 8, 1–9.

21.

Regression toward the mean. (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

22.

Reichardt

(1999). Introduction. In Campbell

Kenny

, A primer on regression artifacts (pp. ix-xi). New York, NY: Guilford.

23.

Stigler

(1997). Regression towards the mean, historically considered. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 6, 103–114.

24.

Streiner

D.L.

(2001). Regression toward the mean: Its etiology, diagnosis and treatment. Canadian Journal of Psychiatry, 46, 72–76.

25.

Wachsmuth

Wilkinson

Dallal

(2003). Galton’s bend: An undiscovered nonlinearity in Galton’s family stature regression data and a likely explanation based on Pearson and Lee’s stature data. The American Statistician, 57, 190–192.

The mythologization of regression towards the mean

Abstract

Keywords

Get full access to this article

References