Risks of Seven UK Electricity Generation Options Part 1: Routine Operation

Abstract

This paper examines, on a full fuel cycle basis, routine operational risks associated with the generation of electricity by seven options available to the United Kingdom. These options are tidal power, on-shore and off-shore wind, nuclear power, and coal, oil and gas-fired power. To facilitate comparison, risk estimates are normalised per GWa of electricity produced. Risks to the workforce and the public are considered as distinct items.

So far as occupational risks are concerned, it is concluded that when such risks are combined for each cycle, they range from about 0.1 to 0.2 to a maximum of about 1 to 2 fatalities per GWa, with tidal power and gas lying at the lower end of this range, and coal and off-shore wind at the higher end.

With the exception of the renewable cycles, for which significant public health risks of the type included within the remit of this project were not identified, the estimation of risks to the public presents many challenges. For example, while individual radiation doses to the public from the nuclear (and fossil) cycles are found to be insignificant compared to those from natural background radiation, collective doses may appear otherwise when integrated over thousands of years and continental or global populations. However, the meaning of such estimates in terms of health cannot be assessed, and in any event the estimates pale into insignificance when compared with those resulting from exposure to natural radiation were this to be calculated on the same basis.

The problem of comparing public risks associated with the nuclear and fossil cycles is further compounded on considering the copious quantities of solid, liquid and gaseous waste products which are generated, particularly by the fossil cycles. These waste streams contain heavy metals, carcinogens and known respiratory irritants, but neither the short-term nor long-term public health implications can be quantified at present with confidence.

Despite the uncertainties, our broad conclusion is that the routine operational risks of all these cycles are comparatively modest for modern, well-run systems and that the more important factors in energy choice are likely to entail considerations of security of supply, employment, optimum utilisation of the nation's resources and wider environmental considerations.