The PM 2.5 pollution rebound effect and industrial structure adjustment in China: The impact of heterogeneous technological progress and resource dependence

Abstract

Adjusting industrial structure is the fundamental way of pollution control and environmental protection. Analyzing the PM_2.5 pollution rebound effect of industrial structure adjustment based on heterogeneous technological progress and resource dependence is of great significance for in-depth and sustained pollution reduction. The results of combining the panel threshold regression model and the modified STIRPAT model on provincial panel data from 2008 to 2022 show that a 1% increase in structural upgrading results in a 0.4130% decrease in PM_2.5 pollution; a 1% increase in structural rationalization results in a 0.0934% decrease in PM_2.5 pollution. Resource dependence causes the PM_2.5 pollution rebound effect of industrial structure adjustment; industrial structure upgrading with resource dependence has an insignificant increase effect on PM_2.5 pollution, 1% increase of rationalization with resource dependence leads to a 2.8637% increase in PM_2.5 pollution. As technology progresses, the increasing effect of industrial structure upgrading with resource dependence on pollution gradually weakens and finally transforms into a reduction effect; the reduction effect of industrial structure rationalization with resource dependence becomes an increasing effect causing the rebound to reappear and then turns to be a reduction effect again, show an invert “N.” Heterogeneous technological progress has the paradox impact mechanism on the pollution rebound; environmental protection technological progress can eliminate the pollution rebound, whereas energy-saving technological progress may cause a pollution rebound effect of industrial structure rationalization.