How to promote China's green economic development? The combination effects of consumption tax and carbon tax policies

Abstract

With massive greenhouse gas emissions causing global warming, emissions reduction and economic growth are essential objectives that must be balanced in sustainable development worldwide. The tax policy is an effective tool for environmental protection and economic regulation. Over the years, China has continuously adjusted tax policies, and the tax structure has tended to be optimized, but there is still no carbon tax. In this regard, based on the purpose of promoting the harmonious development of the environment and economy, this article builds a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with five scenarios to assess the economic, energy, and environmental effects of the consumption tax, the carbon tax as well as their combination in China during 2022 to 2035. The results show that lowering the consumption tax on non-energy-intensive commodities boosts long-term economic growth but is not conducive to emissions reduction. Additionally, a separate carbon tax promotes a cleaner energy transition, reducing emissions while harming the economy. In contrast to the stand-alone policy treatment, the combination of lower consumption taxes on non-energy-intensive commodities with the medium carbon tax rate could have a “double dividend” effect, with long-term economic growth and consistently reduced pollution emissions. In the future, it will be essential to implement the appropriate policy combination to reduce fossil energy consumption and increase clean energy share. Thus, it would help to achieve China's 2030 peak carbon target and promote green economic development effectively.