The purpose of this study is to forecast the greenhouse gas reduction potential of Korea’s cement industry by applying the latest data and new reduction methods and compare them with the previously imposed reduction target, 7.1% of Roadmap 2030. The greenhouse gas emissions are estimated on two different parts of fuel combustion and industrial process emissions, and the Reference Energy System is formed based on the cement production processes in 2015. Estimated clinker productions and energy consumptions are applied to develop the BAU scenario, and the MESSAGE model is used for the reduction scenario analysis. The reduction scenarios include raw material substitution, fuel substitution, and waste heat recovery power generation. Greenhouse gas emissions of 33,775 thousand tCO2e are estimated in the BAU scenario and greenhouse gas emissions after reduction are forecasted to be 31,626 thousand tCO2e, decreased 6.4% compared to the BAU scenario. The reduction rates are expected to be 5.3% in raw material substitution, 2.9% in waste heat recovery power generation, 0.7% in fuel substitution, and 0.1% in equipment energy efficiency. Thus, we propose that raw material substitution and waste heat recovery power generation are actively utilized, to review the existing greenhouse gas reduction method and develop the new technologies and to build a cooperation system between government and industry based on mutual trust.
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