Forecasting a Fatal Decision: Direct Replication of the Predictive Validity of the Suicide–Implicit Association Test

Abstract

A previous study by Nock et al. (2010) suggested that people’s implicit identification with “death” or “suicide” can accurately predict whether they will attempt suicide several months in advance. We report the first direct and independent replication of this promising finding. Participants were 165 patients seeking treatment at a psychiatric unit in France. At baseline, patients completed the Suicide–Implicit Association Test (S–IAT), a semistructured interview, and a self-report measure of suicide ideation. Six months later, we contacted participants by phone and examined their hospital medical records to determine whether they had made a new suicide attempt. Results showed that the S–IAT did not distinguish between patients who were admitted to the hospital following suicide attempts and those who were admitted for other reasons. As in the original study, however, the S–IAT predicted suicide attempts within the 6-month follow-up period beyond well-known predictors. The test correctly classified 85% of patients (95% confidence interval = [76.91, 91.53]), supporting its diagnostic value for identifying who will make a suicide attempt.