Symmetry in Cold-to-Hot and Hot-to-Cold Valuation Gaps

Abstract

Individuals commonly mispredict their future preferences when they make decisions in a visceral state different from their anticipated state at consumption. In the research reported here, we asked subjects to bid on different foods while exogenously varying their hunger levels at the time of decision and at the time of consumption. This procedure allowed us to test whether cold-to-hot and hot-to-cold gaps are symmetric in size and driven by similar mechanisms. We found that the effect size was symmetric: Hungry subjects overbid 20¢ for a snack they would eat later when they were satiated, and satiated subjects underbid 19¢ for a snack they would eat later when they were hungry. Furthermore, we found evidence that these gaps were driven by symmetric mechanisms that operate on the evaluation of visceral features of food, such as taste, as opposed to more cognitive features, such as healthiness.