Official Estimates and AIDS Epidemiology

Department of Health, Welsh Office. Short-term prediction of HIV and AIDS in England and Wales: report of a working group. London: HMSO, 1988

Cox DR Anderson RM Hillier HC . Epidemiological and statistical aspects of the AIDS epidemic. Phil Trans R Soc Land B 1989; 325: 37–187

PHLS. Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome in England and Wales to end 1983: Projections using data to end September 1989. Communicable Disease Report: January 1990.

Brookmeyer R Gail MH . The minimum size of the AIDS epidemic in the United States. Lancet 1986; ii: 1320–2

Rees M. The sombre view of AIDS. Nature 1987; 326: 343–5

St Louis ME Raugh KJ Peterson LR . Seroprevalence rates of human immunodeficiency virus infection at sentinel hospitals in the United States. N Engl J Med 1990; 323: 213–18

Rees M. Short-term prediction of HIV infection and AIDS: A critique of the Working Group's Report to the Department of Health. Int J STD AIDS 1990; 1: 10–17

PHLS Working Group. Prevalence of HIV antibody in high and low risk groups in England. BMJ 1989; 298: 422–3

Coxon APM Davies PM Hunt AJ McManus TJ Sutherland S. Factors associated with HIV-1 infection in a non-clinic cohort of homosexually active men. Project Sigma Working Paper 15; South Bank Polytechnic; 1989

Centers for Disease Control. Human immunodeficiency virus infection in the United States: A review of current knowledge. MMWR 1987; 36: 1–49

Hessol NA Lifson AR O'Malley PM Doll LS Jaffe HW Rutherford GW . Prevalence, incidence and progression of human immunodeficiency virus infection in homosexual and bisexual men in hepatitis vaccine trials 1978–1988. Am J Epidemiol 1989; 130: 1167–75

Carne CA Weller IVD Johnson AM , Prevalence of antibodies to human immunodeficiency virus, gonorrhoea rates and changed sexual behaviour in homosexual men in London. Lancet 1989; 1: 656–8

van Griensven GJP de Vroome EMM Goudsmit J Coutinho RA . Changes in sexual behaviour and the fall in incidence of HIV infection among homosexual men. BMJ 1989; 298: 218–21

Thompson C Robertson DHH . Trends in sexual behaviour and HIV incidence in homosexual men. BMJ 1989; 298: 673

Darby SC Rizza CR Doll R Spooner RJD Stratton IM Thakrar B. Incidence of AIDS and excess of mortality associated with haemophiliacs in the United Kingdom: Report on behalf of the directors of haemophilia centres in the United Kingdom. BMJ 1989; 298: 1064–8

Goedert JJ Kessler CM Aledort LM . A prospective study of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection and the development of AIDS in subjects with haemophilia. N Engl J Med 1989; 321: 1141–8

Rees M. HIV infectiousness and the AIDS epidemic. Scand J Soc Med 1989; 17: 33–8

Beck EJ Donegan C Kenny C . An update on HIV testing at a London sexually transmitted disease clinic: Long term update of the AIDS Media Campaign. Genitourin Med 1990;(in press)

Beral V Peterman TA Berkelman RL Jaffe HW . Kaposi's sarcoma among persons with AIDS: A sexually transmitted disease? Lancet 1990; 335: 123–8

Gail MH Rosenberg PS Goedert JJ . Therapy may explain recent deficits in AIDS incidence. J Acquir Immune Defici Syndr 1990; 3: 296–306

Hanraham JP Wormser GP Reilly AA Maquire BH Gavis G Morse DL . Prolonged incubation period of AIDS in intravenous drug abuse: Epidemiological evidence in prison inmates. J Infect Dis 1984; 150: 263–6

Lui K-J Lawrence DN Morgan WM Peterman TA Haverkos HW Bregman DJ . A model-based approach for estimating the mean incubation period for transfusion-associated acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 1986; 83: 3051–5

Medley GF Anderson RM Cox DR Billard L. Incubation period of AIDS in patients infected by blood transfusion. Nature 1987; 328: 719–21

Bacchetti P Moss AR . Incubation period of AIDS in San Francisco. Nature 1989; 338: 251–3

Lempe GF Payne SF Rutherford GW . Projections of AIDS morbidity and mortality in San Francisco. JAMA 1990; 263: 1497–1501

Rees M. Describing the AIDS epidemic. Lancet 1987; ii: 98–9

Wiley JA Samuel MC . Prevalence of HIV infection in the USA. AIDS 1989; 3 (suppl 1): S71–8

Fumento M. The myth of heterosexual AIDS. New York: New Republic Books; 1989