Track-related failures are a major factor contributing to train derailments in the United States. Therefore, determining the failure time is critical for safety purposes. Traditionally, failure time in track geometry has been modeled using defect data. However, unless it is an accident due to extreme events, track geometry fails as a result of an underlying degradation process. The first hitting time is referred to the probability distribution of the time at which the degradation path first reaches a safety threshold. This paper presents the formulation and implementation of the first hitting time in railway track geometry degradation using track geometry inspection data. The underlying degradation path is modeled as a Wiener process with drift, and the first hitting time follows an inverse Gaussian distribution. The results provide a more robust representation of the failure time in track geometry using degradation data.
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