Party Competition in an American One-Party-Dominant System a Formal Analysis

Abstract

In many American legislative election systems incumbents have a good chance of returning and seats tend to be retained by a party even when the incumbent fails to return. Because of this, even should a minor party reach competitive parity with the dominant party, a significant increase in elected representation will not result in the short term (five elections). Further, small amounts of bias either for or against the minor party will not appreciably influence short-term elected representation. Thus, what has long been considered one party dominated American states might better be thought of as incumbent dominated. These points are demonstrated in a formal model which is applied to Republican candidates in Oklahoma state legislative elections.