Abstract
Background
This study aimed to predict the progression of acute pancreatitis by measuring the maximum cross-sectional area of the psoas major muscle at the level of the L3 vertebra (TPA).
Objectives
This could enable quick and more proactive clinical interventions to reduce the mortality rates for moderate and severe acute pancreatitis.
Methods
Data were analyzed from 112 patients with acute pancreatitis who were categorized into mild, moderate, and severe groups based on the 2012 revised Atlanta classification criteria. The TPA values for all patients were measured and the ratios of each patient's TPA to the normal TPA were calculated. The patients were then divided into two groups: Group A (mild acute pancreatitis) and Group B (moderate-to-severe acute pancreatitis). Chi-square tests and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were applied to the TPA ratio data for both groups.
Results
Significant differences were found between Groups A and B. Using each patient's TPA/normal TPA ratio as a parameter, the ROC curve identified a TPA/normal TPA threshold of 1.056, which achieved a sensitivity and specificity of 62.2% and 80%, respectively, with an area under the curve of 0.761.
Conclusions
A smaller TPA significantly increased the risk of progression from acute pancreatitis to moderate or even severe acute pancreatitis.
Keywords
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