This paper explores how two relatively new methods, which may be categorized loosely as "artificial mtelligence" (AI) approaches, might be used in analyzing the relationship between socioeconomic data and democracy. The ID3 algorithm is used as a preprocessor in the construction of neural networks which are used to predict the potential level of democracy of communist countries on the basis of socioeconomic variables for 147 countries.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Dowdmg, K.M., and Kimber, R.1983. "The meaning and use of 'political stability.' " European Journal of Political Research11:229-43.
2.
Garson, G.D.1987. "The role of inductive expert systems generators in the social science research process." Social Science Microcomputer Review5(1): 11-24.
3.
—. 1990. "Comparing expert systems and neural network algorithms with common multivariate procedures for analysis of social science data." Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 30 August-2 September.
4.
Kimber, R.1989. "On democracy." Scandinavian Political Studies12(3): 199-219.
5.
—. 1991. "Predicting democracy in Eastern Europe." Paper presented at the Joint Sessions of Workshops of the European Consortium for Political Research held at the University of Essex, 22-28 March.
6.
Rumelhart, D.E., & McClelland, J.L.1987. Parallel distributed processing: Explorations in the microstructure of cognition, Vol. 1. Cambridge: MIT Press.
7.
Schrodt, P.A.1990. "Prediction of interstate conflict outcomes using a neural network." Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco , 30 August-2 September.
8.
Vanhanen, Tatu.1989. "The level of democratization related to socioeconomic variables in 147 states in 1980-85." Scandinavian Political Studies12:95-127.
9.
—. 1990a. "How to explain democratization in Eastern Europe? " Paper presented at a meeting of IPSA Study Group 32 organized jointly with the Finnish Political Science Association, University of Tampere, 14-17 May.
10.
—. 1990b. The process of democratization: A comparative study of 147 states, 1980-88. New York: Crane Russak.