Expert Systems: An Overview for Social Scientists

Abstract

This survey article examines the nature of expert systems, describes conventional approaches to expert systems construction, discusses contexts in which expert systems are and are not appropriate, provides private and public sector examples of expert systems, and inventories various types of expert systems development tools. In addition, separate sections examine the special topics of inductive expert systems and of neural networks. It is concluded that expert system software could become an important new class of tools for social scientists. Keywords expert systems, neural networks, artificial intelligence, modeling, social science.

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References

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90.

Aion Development System (ADS) ($7,000 for DOS or OS/2 versions), Aion Corporation, 101 University Ave., 4th Floor, Palo Alto, CA 94301, 415-328-9595.

91.

Arity/Prolog ($650 for DOS, $1,000 for OS/2), Arity Corporation, 29 Domino Drive, Concord, MA 01742; 800-722-7489; 617-371-1243. No runtime fees. Also available for the DOS version only. Arity SQL Development Package, $295, Arity Expert Development Package, $295, Arity Expert Toolkit, $150, or $1,095 for the base system and all three.

92.

BrainMaker with NetMaker ($195), California Scientific Software, 160 E. Montecito Ave. NO. E., Sierra Madre, CA 91024, 818-355-1094.

93.

Crystal ($995), Intelligent Environments, 2 Highwood Drive, Tewksbury, MA 01876, 508-640-1080.

94.

CXPERT ($795), Software Plus, 1652 Albemarle Drive, Crofton, MD 21114; 301-261-0264. A demo disk is available for $10.

95.

ESIE (Expert Systems Inference Engine) (user-supported shareware, evaluation copy $10), National Collegiate Software, Duke University Press, 6697 College Station, Durham, NC 27708; 919-684-6837. Registered version is $145 from Lightwave, Inc., Box 16858, Tampa, FL 33617, 813-988-5033.

96.

Expert System Development Environment (ESDE), (VM mainframe version, free to colleges which are in the IBM Higher Education Software Consortium), IBM Corporation.

97.

EXSYS ($395, $795 for EXSYS Professional), EXSYS Inc., Box 75158, Contr. Sta. 14, Albuquerque, NM 87194, 505-256-8356, Fax 505-256-8359. The runtime license for MS-DOS machines is $600 per 30 installs for regular version, $1,000 per 30 installs for the Professional version.

98.

1st Class HT ($2,495), 1st-Class Fusion (DOS or OS/2, $1,495, for DEC VAX, $5,500 and up). From ist-Class Expert Systems, Inc., 562 Boston Post Road, 150 E. Wayland, MA 01778; 800-872-8812, 508-358-7722.

99.

Goldworks II ($7,500), Gold Hill Computers, Inc., 26 Landsdowne Street, Cambridge, MA 02139, 800-242-5477; 617-621-3300.

100.

Guru ($6,500 for DOS version, $17,000 for OS/2 or PC LAN versions, to $60,000 for VAX version), MDBS, Box 248, 2 Executive Drive, Lafayette, IN 47902, 317-463-4561.

101.

I-CAT ($15,000 base system), Automated Reasoning Corporation, 1800 Northern Blvd., Roslyn, NY 11576; 516-484-6254.

102.

Knowledge Engineering Environment (KEE) ($95,000 one-time or rental by arrangement, MVS version; runtime license for unlimited PC access, $45,000), IntelliCorp, 1975 El Camino Real West, Mountain View, CA 94040; 415-965-5700.

103.

KnowledgePro ($495 for DOS version; $695 for Windows version, Database Toolkit, $125; Graphics Toolkit, $125), Knowledge Garden Inc., 473A Maiden Bridge Road, Nassau, NY 12123; 518-766-3000, Fax 518-766-3003. No runtime fee.

104.

Level5 ($685 for DOS, educational price available; VAX version $1,200 to $60,000; mamframe version $48,000 to $57,600), Level5 Research, 503 Fifth Ave., Indialantic, FL 32903; 800-444-4303 or 407-729-6004; or Information Builders, Inc., 1250 Broadway, New York, NY 10001; 212-736-4433. Runtime is $150 per install or $3,000 for production compiler for unlimited use. Level5/Mainframe is the version for VM or MVS mainframe systems, giving access to DB2 and 26 other databases, including SQL support. A videotape, Expert Systems Your Competitive Advantage, is available for $20 from Information Builders at the NYC address. Information Builders also publishes Focus, the leading 4th generation language DBMS, with which Level5 interfaces.

105.

MacSMARTS ($195) and MacSMARTS Professional ($495), Cogmtion Technology, 55 Wheeler Street, Cambndge, MA 02138; 617-492-0246.

106.

MANA ($2,450), Business Model Systems Inc., 700 East Ogden Ave., Suite 304, Westmont, IL 60559; 708-789-9160; Fax 708-789-0253; BBS 708-789-0876. Runtime fee is $250 per install.

107.

NeuralWorks Professional II ($1,485 DOS version, $ Macintosh version, UNIX version $2,995), NeuralWare Inc., Penn Center West, Building IV, Suite 227, Pittsburgh, PA 15276; 412-787-8222. Runtime fee is $1,995 per year for the runtime development package (NeuralWorks Designer Pack), plus $1,500 per year for the actual runtime license for unlimited installs.

108.

NeuroShell ($195 plus $9 shipping), add $99 for the Database Version for dBASE III m-terface, Ward Systems Group, 245 W. Patrick St., Frederick, MD 21701; 301-662-7950; Fax 301-663-6656.

109.

Nexpert Object ($5,000), Newron Data, 444 High Street, Palo Alto, CA 94301, 415-321-4488.

110.

OPS/83 ($1,950 DOS version, $2,950 OS/2 version; $3,950 UNIX version System v), Production Systems Technologies, 5001 Baum Blvd., Pittsburgh, PA 15213, 412-683-4000.

111.

Rulemaster ($595), Radian Corporation, 8501 Mo-Pac Blvd., Box 201088, Austm, TX 78720-1088, 512-454-4797.

112.

Symbologlc Adept ($1,195 on DOS/Windows, may be available on other platforms after late 1990, Symbologic Corporation, 15379 NE 90th Street, Redmond, WA 98052; 800-448-9292; 206-881-3938. Runtime fee is $295 per PC for 2-9 PCS and $200 per PC for over 200 PCs. For use in educational environments, a 50% discount is available for the development system (runtime fees are 50% off only if sales are only to educational institutions). The student version is $89.95 and is fully functional and documented but limited in application size (large but not giant).

113.

TIMM (The Intelligent Machine Model) ($1,900 for DOS version), General Research Corporation, 7655 Old Spnnghouse Road, McLean, VA 22102; 703-893-5900.

114.

TIRS (The Integrated Reasoning Shell) ($7,500), IBM Corporation. The runtime fee is $750 per copy.

115.

VP-Expert ($249), Paperback Software International, 2830 Ninth Street, Berkeley, CA 94710; 800-255-3242; 415-644-2116. VP-Expert/SQL supports the Structured Query Language and is $695, including a copy of SQLBase from Gupta Technologies. Runtime licensing is $300/year for unlimited installs and upgrades.