Software Reviews : The Confidence Factor: The Decision-Maker's Tool Kit Publisher: Simple Software,Inc.,2 Pinewood Rd.,Irvine CA 92714 (telephone: [phone]) Year of Publication: 1983 Materials: One 5-¼ inch diskette and a 97-page manual. Price: $389 for a single license;additional educational licenses are available for $50 each. Machine Specificity: The program is available for computers running PC-DOS 1.1 or 2.0,some MS-DOS systems,and a few CP/M systems. It runs well on IBM-PC and compatibles,and Zenith Z-100 micros. System Requirements: 128K RAM,and one disk drive (two drives preferred) Effectiveness: Very good. Documentation: Adequate for those who are already familiar with the analytic techniques,but cannot be used as a means of learning them. Examples are all from private sector applications,so some creativity is required to apply the techniques to public-sector problems.

Abstract

Techniques of rigorous prescriptive analysis are increasingly finding their way into the practice and curricula of public policy and management analysis. For those who are interested in critical path planning, simple lexicographic decision-making techniques, linear programming, decision-tree analysis, or risk simulation, THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR may well constitute a refreshing alternative to existing software. Overall, I have found THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR to be useful in preparing materials for class, and for personal analyses. It has been very helpful when combined with one of the more popular public policy analysis texts, the Stokey and Zeckhauser Primer for Policy Analysis.