Trouble in Paradise? Employment Trends and Forecasts for a Service-Oriented Economy

Abstract

The phenomenal growth of Florida's service sector over the past three decades can be largely attributed to the impacts of elderly in-migration and flourishing recreational and tourist industries. The demands of seasonal migrants, a soaring population, and an increasing share of elderly provided the state with an apparent economic boom. Over 40% of the state's personal income is now derived from interstate income transfers. Although these income flows have undoubtedly helped Florida experience modest gains in many sectors, the ability of these dollars to provide adequate stimulus for further growth remains questionable. As income transfers level off the growth of Florida's retail and service sectors is likely to slow. Projected structural deficits are likely to offset the benefits of three decades of expansion. State economic development planners must, therefore, seek to promote initiatives aimed at reducing Florida's reliance on transfer income and consumer services.