An Evaluation of Industry Projections: A Case Study of the Ohio Economy

Abstract

Evaluation is an often neglected component of the industry projections process at the state level. A case study for Ohio shows that multiple regression techniques have resulted in better projections than those generated by linear time-trend extrapolations or shift-share modeling. However, analysis and output have generally not been well documented for future review. Past projections of industry employment for the Ohio economy have relied too heavily on the national industry projections. It is very important that key economic variables for the state economy, like population and income, be incorporated into the modeling process so that state projections are not so dependent on national trends. Better research will improve the likelihood that the projections will yield sound planning and policy decisions.