To analyze temporal trends (2006-2023) and projections (2030) of the prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus (DM) and health risk and protective factors among adults with DM in Brazil.
Design
Time-series study.
Setting
Data from the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey.
Subjects
Population-based sample of 806 169 adults, including 74 381 adults with DM.
Measures
Prevalence of DM, health risk factors (eg, prolonged screen time on TV, sweetened beverage consumption, heavy episodic drinking, hypertension) and protective factors (eg, commuting physical activity, self-rated health).
Analysis
Temporal trends (2006-2023) and projections (up to 2030) were analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression models. Results were expressed as average annual percentage point changes (pp/y).
Results
The prevalence of DM increased from 5.5% to 10.2% between 2006 and 2023 (0.22 pp/y), with a higher increment in the recent period (2018-2023: 0.56 pp/y). By 2030, the prevalence is projected to reach 10.8%. Among adults with DM, recent trends revealed increases in prolonged screen time on TV (0.96 pp/y), sweetened beverage consumption (1.62 pp/y), and heavy episodic drinking (1.51 pp/y), alongside decreases in hypertension (−0.98 pp/y), poor self-rated health (−0.53 pp/y), and commuting physical activity (−0.97 pp/y).
Conclusion
The prevalence of DM has risen significantly in Brazil and is projected to continue growing. Simultaneously, worsening trends in health risk and protective factors among adults with DM highlight the urgent need for reformulated public health policies focused on DM prevention and management.
SrourBFezeuLKKesse-GuyotE, et al.Ultraprocessed food consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes among participants of the NutriNet-santé prospective cohort. JAMA Intern Med. 2020;180(2):283-291. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2019.5942
3.
GBD 2016 Alcohol Collaborators. Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet. 2018;392:1015-1035. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31310-2
4.
TinajeroMGMalikVS. An update on the epidemiology of type 2 diabetes: a global perspective. Endocrinol Metab Clin N Am. 2021;50:337-355. doi:10.1016/j.ecl.2021.05.013
OliveiraAPDNMaiaEGSilvaFMMartinsAPBClaroRM. Needed improvements in diabetes prevention and management in Brazil. Prev Chronic Dis. 2018;15:180269. doi:10.5888/pcd15.180269
7.
ReisRCPDuncanBBMaltaDCIserBPMSchmidtMI. Evolution of diabetes in Brazil: prevalence data from the 2013 and 2019 Brazilian national health survey. Cad Saude Publica. 2022;38(1):e00149321. doi:10.1590/0102-311X00149321
SilvaLESGouvêaECDPStopaSR, et al. Data resource profile: surveillance system of risk and protective factors for chronic diseases by telephone survey for adults in Brazil (Vigitel). Int J Epidemiol. 2021;50(4):1058-1063. doi:10.1093/ije/dyab104
13.
SousaTMSilvaLESRodriguesLCCaldeiraTCMCardosoLOClaroRM. Tendência temporal de indicadores da operação do Vigitel Brasil (2006 a 2023). Rev Saude Publica. 2025;59:eX.
14.
MarquesASantosDAPeraltaMSardinhaLBValeiroMG. Regular physical activity eliminates the harmful association of television watching with multimorbidity. A cross-sectional study from the European Social Survey. Prev Med. 2018;109:28-33. doi:10.1016/j.ypmed.2018.01.015
15.
GranadoFSMaiaEGMendesLLClaroRM. Reduction of traditional food consumption in Brazilian diet: trends and forecasting of bean consumption (2007–2030). Public Health Nutr. 2021;24(6):1185-1192. doi:10.1017/S1368980020005066
16.
PeredaPBoaratiVGuidettiBDuranAC. Direct and indirect costs of diabetes in Brazil in 2016. Ann Glob Health. 2022;88(1):14. doi:10.5334/aogh.3000
17.
GBD 2019 diabetes in the americas collaborators. Burden of diabetes and hyperglycaemia in adults in the americas, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2022;10(9):613-614. doi:10.1016/S2213-8587(22)00186-3
18.
ReedJBainSKanamarlapudiV. A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives. Diabetes Metab Syndr Obes. 2021;14:3567-3602. doi:10.2147/DMSO.S319895
19.
EstivaletiJMGuzman-HabingerJLobosJ, et al.Time trends and projected obesity epidemic in Brazilian adults between 2006 and 2030. Sci Rep. 2022;12:12699. doi:10.1038/s41598-022-16934-5
20.
HwangJShonC. Relationship between socioeconomic status and type 2 diabetes: results from korea national health and nutrition examination survey (KNHANES) 2010-2012. BMJ Open. 2014;4:e005710. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2014-005710
21.
Beltrán-SánchezHAndradeFCD. Time trends in adult chronic disease inequalities by education in Brazil: 1998-2013. Int J Equity Health. 2016;15:139. doi:10.1186/s12939-016-0426-5
22.
AgarwalSWadeANMbanyaJC, et al.The role of structural racism and geographical inequity in diabetes outcomes. Lancet. 2023;402(10397):P235-249. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00909-1
23.
Brasil Ministério da Saúde Secretaria de Gestão Estratégica e Participativa. Departamento de Apoio à Gestão Participativa e ao Controle Social. Política Nacional de Saúde Integral da População Negra : uma política para o SUS / Ministério da Saúde, Secretaria de Gestão Estratégica e Participativa, Departamento de Apoio à Gestão Participativa e ao Controle Social. – 3. ed. – Brasília : Editora do Ministério da Saúde, 2017. 44 p. ISBN 978-85-334-2515-6.
24.
World Health Organization. International Diabetes Federation. HEARTS D: Diagnosis and Management of Type 2 Diabetes. World Health Organization; 2020. License: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/who-ucn-ncd-20.1
MonteiroCALevyRBClaroRMCastroIRRCannonG. Increasing consumption of ultra-processed foods and likely impact on human health: evidence from Brazil. Public Health Nutr. 2011;14:5-13. doi:10.1017/S1368980010003241
RossiPDweckE. Impacts of the new fiscal regime on health and education. Cad Saude Publica. 2016;32(1):e00194316. doi:10.1590/0102-311X00194316
30.
CaldeiraTCMSilvaLESSousaTMSoaresMMClaroRM. Temporal trend in the coexistence of risk behaviors for noncommunicable Diseases in Brazil: 2009–2019. Prev Chronic Dis. 2023;20:220296. doi:10.5888/pcd20.220296
31.
BaroneMTUHarnikSBLucaPV, et al.The impact of COVID-19 on people with diabetes in Brazil. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2020;166:108304. doi:10.1016/j.diabres.2020.108304
32.
MonteiroCAMouraECJaimePCClaroRM. Validity of food and beverage intake data obtained by telephone survey. Rev Saude Publica. 2008;42(4):582-589. doi:10.1590/S0034-89102008000400002
33.
CaldeiraTCMSoaresMMSilvaLESVeigaIPAClaroRM. Chronic disease risk and protective behaviors in Brazilian state capitals and the federal District, according to the national health survey and the chronic disease risk and protective factors telephone survey surveillance system, 2019. Epidemiol Serv Saude. 2022;31(spe1):e2021367. doi:10.1590/SS2237-9622202200009.especial
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
