A Paradigm Shift: The Geopolitical Awakening of the European Union and Central and Eastern Europe States as Full-Fledged Security Actors in the Context of Russia’s War in Ukraine

Abstract

The Russian war has impacted not only Ukraine but also the whole European community—the European Union (EU) and especially Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), where the Russian threat has been looming for over three decades ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now, having revisited their aggressive policies of the past, Russia’s actions have detrimental effects on the region not only through active warfare in Ukraine but also due to propaganda and disinformation campaigns in many EU states, as well as energy blackmail. The EU as a whole has also been deeply affected by the war in Ukraine. There was talk of a “paradigm shift” in France, of a “Zeitenwende” (end of an era) in Germany, of an “end to naivety.” The EU has not only emerged from its soft policy in the face of the Russian regime’s policies but also matured in its geopolitical awareness. The war in Ukraine has hit a trajectory that was already favorable to the EU’s geopolitical consolidation. Since 2014, European defense has been revived, at least in terms of capabilities, with joint funding for military research projects and the joint development of defense capabilities (in particular, the European Defense Fund with eight billion euro for 2021–2027). Undoubtedly, resolving the conflict is up to the Ukrainians and the Russians. Still, the process will directly or indirectly involve all actors interested in a global order. The axis of geopolitical world reconstruction is particularly important for Ukraine but is also vital for the future of the EU, CEE, and Poland. Therefore, it must be assumed that the EU’s approach and capabilities must be prepared diplomatically and militarily to respond to any potential future threats to maintain stability and peace in the region.