The Economy or an Urban–Rural Divide? Explaining Spatial Patterns of Voting Behaviour in Poland

Abstract

This article contributes to the debate on spatial variance of voting behaviour in Poland. Using empirical data from the 2015 Polish parliamentary election, two alternative explanations of observed patterns are tested. The first focuses on the role of economy while the second emphasises the importance of the urban–rural divide. The empirical analysis demonstrates higher relevance of the differences between urban and rural areas. Even after controlling for historical legacies, urbanization offers the best explanation of the differences in electoral results between spatial units. Furthermore, the effects related to the urban–rural divide are similar within the two broadly defined clusters of parties. Economic variables, on the contrary, matter only in certain socio-cultural contexts.