This article reports on the results of a time series analysis of Dutch data for a 37-year time period (1952-1988) to test a macro-level model of changes in sentence severity. The model incorporates components of Green and Allen's (1981-1982) "Synthesized Societal Response Model" with the added variable of unemployment. The tested model includes the following variables: (1) severity of punishment (t) and (t-1); (2) certainty of punishment (t-1); (3) crime rate (t-1); (4) social complexity (t-1); (5) normative diversity (t-1); and (6) unemployment (t-1). Normative diversity is measured by the annual num ber of immigrants entering The Netherlands. The analysis shows that the find ings for The Netherlands are consistent with established thinking about the determinants of incarceration policies; it confirms the usefulness of incorpo rating measures of changing population composition (i.e., immigration) in macro-level analyses; and it suggests that Green and Allen's proposal for a syntheses of models of social response to deviance is a heuristically useful device.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Akers, R.L.1990Rational choice, deterrence, and social learning theory: the path not takenJournal Of Criminal Law & Criminology. 81(3): 653-676
2.
. 1994Criminological Theories: Introduction And EvaluationLos Angeles, CA.: Roxbury Publishing.
3.
Albrecht, H.J.1991Ethnic minorities: Crime and justice in Europe In F. Heidensohn and M. Farrell (eds.), Crime In Europe.London: Routledge.
4.
Bennett, R.R.1991Development and crime: A cross-national, time-series analysis of competing modelsThe Sociological Quarterly32: 343-363.
5.
Berghuis, A.C. and P. van Hooff1991Key figures on the Dutch criminal justice system Pp. 1-14 (Vol. 2) in Dutch Penal Law And Policy: Notes On Criminological Research From The Research and Documentation CentreThe Hague, The Netherlands: Dutch Ministry of Justice.
6.
Blumstein, A.1993Presidential address: Making rationality relevantCriminology. 31: 1-16.
7.
Blumstein, A., J. Cohen, and D. Nagin (eds.) 1978Deterrence And Incapacitation: Estimating The Effects Of Criminal Sanctions And Crime Rates.Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences.
8.
Blumstein, A., J. Cohen, and D. Nagin1977The dynamics of a homeostatic punishment processThe Journal Of Criminal Law And Criminology.1977: 317-330
9.
. Blumstein, A. and J. Cohen1973A theory of the stability of punishmentThe Journal Of Criminal Law And Criminology.1973: 198-207
10.
. Bovenkerk, F.1993Crime and the multi-ethnic society: A view from EuropeCrime, Law And Social Change.19: 271-280
11.
. Box, S. and C. Hale1982Economic crisis and the rising prisoner population in England and WalesCrime And Social Justice.17: 20-35
12.
Brown, M.C. and B.D. Warner1995The political threat of immigrant groups and police aggressiveness in 1900 Pp. 82-98 in D. F. Hawkins (ed.), Ethnicity, Race, And Crime: Perspectives Across Time And Place.Albany, New York: State University of New York Press.
13.
Brown, M.C. and B.D. Warner1992Immigrants, urban politics, and policing in 1900American Sociological Review.57: 293-305
14.
. Cappell, C.L. and G. Sykes1991Prison commitments, crime, and unemployment: A theoretical and empirical specification for the United States, 1933-1985Journal Of Quantitative Criminology.7: 155-199
15.
. Central Bureau voor de Statistiek1990Statistisch Jaarboek 1990The Hague, The Netherlands: CBS-Publikaties.
16.
Chambliss, W.J.1995Crime control and ethnic minorities: Legitimizing racial oppression by creating moral panics Pp. 235-258 in D. F. Hawkins (ed.), Ethnicity, Race, And Crime: Perspectives Across Time And Place.Albany, New York: State University of New York Press.
17.
Chambliss, W.J. and R.B. Seidman1982Law, Order, And Power (Second EditionReading, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley.
18.
Chiricos, T.G. and M.A. DeLone1992Labor surplus and punishment: A review and assessment of theory and evidenceSocial Problems.39(4): 421-446
19.
. de Haan, W.J.M. Forthcoming Minorities, crime, and criminal justice in the Netherlands In I. H. Marshall (ed.), Minorities And Crime: Diversity And Similarity Across Europe And The United States.Thousand Oak, California: Sage Publications.
20.
Decker, S.H. and C.W. Kohfeld1985Crimes, crime rates, arrests, and arrest ratios: Implications for deterrence theoryCriminology. 23: 437-450
21.
. Devine, J.A., J.F. Sheley, and M.D. Smith1988Macroeconomic and social-control policy influences on crime rate changes, 1948- 1985American Sociological Review.53: 407-420
22.
. Downes, D.1982The origins and consequences of Dutch penal policy since 1945British Journal Of Criminology.22: 325-362.
23.
1988Contrasts in Tolerance: Post-War Penal Policy In The Netherlands And England And WalesOxford: Clarendon.
24.
Durkheim, E.1983The Division of Labor in SocietyNew York: Macmillan.
25.
Eijken, A.W.M.1992Criminaliteitsbeeld van Nederland: Criminaliteit, Onveiligheid En Preventie In De Periode 1980-1991The Hague: Dutch Ministry of Justice.
. Ferracuti, F.1968European migration and crime Pp. 189-219 in M. E. Wolfgang (ed.), Crime And Culture: Essays In Honor Of Thorsten Sellin.New York: John Wiley.
29.
FitzGerald, M.Forthcoming Minorities, crime and criminal justice in Britain In I. H. Marshall (ed.), Minorities And Crime: Diversity And Similarity Across Europe And The United States.Thousand Oak, California : Sage Publications.
30.
Fiselier, J.P.S.1992A test of the stability of punishment hypothesis: The Dutch caseJournal Of Quantitative Criminology.8(1): 133-151
31.
. Gillis, A.R.1989Crime and state surveillance in nineteenth-century FranceAmerican Journal Of Sociology.95: 307-41
32.
. Green, P.A. and H.D. Allen 1981-82 Severity of societal response to crime: A synthesis of modelsLaw & Society Review.16(2): 181-205
33.
. Greenberg, D.F.1980Penal sanctions in Poland: A test of alternative modelsSocial Problems.28: 194-204.
34.
Hale, C. and D. Sabagh1991Testing the relationship between unemployment and crime: A methodological comment and empirical analysis using time series data from England and WalesJournal Of Research In Crime And Delinquency.28(4): 400-417
35.
. Hamm, M.S.1994Hate Crime: International Perspectives On Causes And ControlCincinnati, Ohio: Anderson Publishing Co.
36.
Hawkins, D.F.1995Ethnicity, race, and crime: A review of selected studies Pp. 11-45 in D. F. Hawkins (Ed.). Ethnicity, Race, and Crime: Perspectives aAcross Time And Place.Albany, New York: State University of New York Press.
37.
Heiland, H. G., L. I. Shelley, and H. Katoh (eds.) 1992Crime And Control in Comparative Perspectives.Berlin and New York: Walter de Gruyter.
38.
Hulsman, L.H.C.1978The Dutch criminal justice system from a comparative legal perspective Pp. 289-380 in D. C. Fokkema, J. M. J. Chorus, E. H. Hondius, and E. C. Lisser (eds.), Introduction To Dutch Law For Foreign Lawyers.Deventer, The Netherlands: Kluwer.
39.
Jackson, P.I.1995Minority group threat, crime, and the mobilization of law in France Pp.341-360 in D. F. Hawkins (Ed.). Ethnicity, Race, And Crime: Perspectives Across Time And Place.Albany, New York: State University of New York Press.
40.
Jenkins, P.1992Intimate Enemies: Moral Panics in Contemporary Great BritainHawthorne, New York: Aldine de Gruyter.
41.
Johnson, J.1984Econometric Methods (3rd Edition). New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company.
42.
Junger, M. and W. Polder1992Some explanations of crime among four ethnic groups in The NetherlandsJournal Of Quantitative Criminology.8(1): 51-78
43.
. Junger-Tas, J. and G.J. Terlouw1991The Dutch Public and the Crime Problem. Pp. 1-9 (Vol. 5, December) in Dutch Penal Law And Policy: Notes On Criminological Research From The Research And Documentation CentreThe Hague, The Netherlands: Dutch Ministry of Justice.
44.
Leuw, E.1996Criminaliteit en Ethnische Minderheden In A. E. Liska (ed.), Een Criminologische Analyse.The Hague, The Netherlands: Dutch Ministry Of Justice, Research And Documentation Centre.
45.
Liska, A. E. (ed.) 1992Social Threat and Social Control.Albany, New York: State University of New York Press.
46.
Liska, A.E. and B. Warner1991Functions of crime: A paradoxical processAmerican Journal Of Sociology.96: 1441-63
47.
. Lynch, J.P.1993A cross-national comparison of the length of custodial sentences for serious crimesJustice Quarterly.10(4): 639-660
48.
. Lynch, J.P.1995Crime in international perspective Pp. 11-38 in J. Q. Wilson and J. Peterselia (eds.), Crime.San Francisco : ICS Press.
49.
Killias, M.1989Criminality among second-generation immigrants in Western Europe: A review of the evidenceCriminal Justice Review.14: 13-42
50.
. MacLean, B. and D. Milovanovic (eds.) 1990Racism, Empiricism, And Criminal Justice.Vancouver, Canada: The Collective Press.
51.
McCord, J.1995Ethnicity, acculturation, and opportunities: A study of two generations Pp.69-81 in D. F. Hawkins (ed.), Ethnicity, Race, And Crime: Perspectives Across Time And Place.Albany, New York: State University of New York Press.
52.
53.
Ministerie van Justitie1985a Samenleving en Criminaliteit: Een Beleidsplan voor de Komende JarenThe Hague: Staatsuitgeverij.
54.
1985 b Society and Crime: A Policy Plan for The NetherlandsThe Hague: Staatsuitgeverij.Mueller, G. O. W.
55.
56.
Pease, K.1994Cross-national imprisonment rates: Limitations of method and possible conclusionThe British Journal Of Criminology.34: 116-130
57.
. Peterson, R.D. and W.C. Bailey1991Felony murder and capital punishment: An examination of the deterrence questionCriminology.29(3): 397-418
58.
. Schichor, D.1990Crime patterns and socioeconomic development: A cross-national analysisCriminal Justice Review.15: 64-77
59.
. Schmid, A. (ed.) 1996Migration and Crime.Milan, Italy: International Scientific and Professional Advisory Council Of The United Nations Crime Prevention And Criminal Justice Programme.
60.
Sellin, T.1938Culture Conflict and CrimeNew York: Social Science Research Council.
61.
Shelley, L.I.1981Crime and ModernizationCarbondale and Edwardsville: Southern Illinois University Press.
62.
Steenhuis, D.W., L.C.M. Tigges, and J.J.A. Essers1983The penal climate in The Netherlands: Sunny or cloudy?British Journal Of Criminology. 23(January): 1-16
63.
. Tittle, C.R.1980Sanctions and Social DevianceNew York: Preager.
64.
Turk, A.1969Criminality and the Legal OrderChicago: Rand McNally.
65.
van Ruller, S.1981Het aantal gevangenen in Nederland sinds 1837: Een analyse van 140 jaar gevangenisstatistiekenTijdschrift Voor Criminologie.23: 209-223
66.
. van Tulder, F.1992Crime, detection rate, and the police: A macro approachJournal Of Quantitative Criminology.8(1): 113-131
67.
. WBS-Werkgroep Migratiepolitiek1993Immigratie: Waar Ligt de Grens? PvdA Verkenningen 1993The Hague: Wiardi Beckman Stichting.
68.
White, K., S.D. Wong, D. Whistler, and S.A. Haun1990Shazam Econometrics Computer Program: User's Reference Manual, Version 6.2New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company.
69.
Wilbanks, W.1987The Myth Of A Racist Criminal Justice System. MontereyCalifornia: Brooks/Cole Publishing Company.
70.
Young, W. and M. Brown1993Cross-national Comparisons of Imprisonment Pp.1-49 in M. Tonry (ed.), Crime And Justice: A Review Of Research (Volume 17). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
