Judicial assessment of offender risk has a direct impact on the sentencing decision. Yet because judges rarely explicitly record their judgments of risk, little is known about the factors that affect these decisions. The current research, however, in analyzing 1,073 explicitly recorded risk assessments, is able to examine the effects of various offender, offense, and contextual variables on the risk decision. Specifically, the research analyzes the judicial stipulation that there is a “risk that defendant will commit another crime.” In keeping with prior research on judicial decision making, the analysis demonstrates that there are relatively few offender-specific variables affecting judicial perceptions of risk. The results are framed within the context of a risk/stakes framework, suggesting some factors are used as predictors of reoffending, whereas other factors are used as predictors of the seriousness of the future offending. The data also suggest strong differences across urban, suburban, and rural counties.
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