Actuarial and Clinical Assessment of Risk in Sex Offenders

Abstract

In this article, actuarial and clinical approaches to risk assessment are reviewed. The benefits and shortcomings of each are examined together with the need to turn statistical significance into clinical relevance. Given the low base rate of sex offending behavior, the heterogeneity of sex offenders, and the variety of contexts in which sex offenses occur, it is argued that neither an actuarial or a clinical approach on its own can, even in theory, provide a reliable means of assessing risk in sexual offenders. This is illustrated in relation to sadistic sexual offenders and the role of fantasy in offending. It is suggested that attention to both phenomenology and actuarial statistics is needed if risk assessment is to have relevance in individual cases.