Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

Gun violence in U.S. schools continues to be a persistent concern. A promising line of scholarship focuses on potential school gun attacks that were stopped before they could occur, but this work is limited to a small number of studies. This study investigates how potential school gun attacks were exposed by analyzing 124 publicly reported cases from 2018 to 2023. For the analysis, we generated descriptive data on the school contexts, individuals, and processes associated with exposing potential school gun attacks both on and off school grounds. Findings indicated that in most cases, suspects communicated their intentions, which created opportunities for exposing potential attacks. Students were the most common source for exposure, reporting 42% of cases, while teachers, parents, and community members played smaller but important roles. To illustrate the interacting factors behind exposing a potential attack, we further describe four recurring scenarios: public signaling of intent, private disclosures to confidants, discovery of written plans or private communications, and detection through safety measures. These pathways to exposing a threat suggest that positive relationships in schools, open lines of communication, and high expectations for reporting serious threats may be central to averting school gun attacks.

Keywords

potential school gun attacks school gun violence averted school shootings behavioral threat assessment

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Alathari

Drysdale

Driscoll

Blair

Mauldin

Carlock

McGarry

Cotkin

Nemet

Johnston

Vineyard

(2021). Averting targeted school gun violence. National Threat Assessment Center. https://www.schoolsafety.gov/resource/averting-targeted-school-violence-us-secret-service-analysis-plots-against-schools

Ajzen

(1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), 179–211.

Ajzen

(2002). Perceived behavioral control, self-efficacy, locus of control, and the theory of planned behavior. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 32(4), 665–683.

Aurini

J. D.

Heath

Howells

(2021). The how to of qualitative research. Sage.

Bandura

(1982). Self-efficacy mechanism in human agency. American Psychologist, 37(2), 122.

Borum

Cornell

D. G.

Modzeleski

Jimerson

S. R.

(2010). What can be done about school shootings? A review of the evidence. Educational Researcher, 39(1), 27–37.

Borum

Rowe

(2021). The importance of bystanders in threat assessment and management. In Meloy

J. R.

Hoffmann

(Eds.), International Handbook of threat assessment (pp. 423–435). Oxford University Press.

Charlton

C. T.

Moulton

Sabey

C. V.

West

(2021). A systematic review of the effects of schoolwide intervention programs on student and teacher perceptions of school climate. Journal of Positive Behavior Interventions, 23(3), 185–200.

Cornell

D. G.

Kerere

Konold

Maeng

Afolabi

Huang

Cowley

(2025). Referral rates for school threat assessment. Psychology in the Schools, 62(4), 1294–1305.

10.

Cornell

D. G.

Maeng

(2018). Statewide implementation of threat assessment in Virginia K-12 schools. Contemporary School Psychology, 22, 116–124.

11.

Crichlow-Ball

Cornell

(2021). Association of school climate with student willingness to report threats of violence. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, 8(3), 77

12.

Daniels

J. A.

Buck

Croxall

Gruber

Kime

Govert

(2007). A content analysis of news reports of averted school rampages. Journal of School Violence, 6(1), 83–99.

13.

Daniels

J. A.

Volungis

Pshenishny

Gandhi

Winkler

Cramer

D. P.

Bradley

M. C.

(2010). A qualitative investigation of averted school shooting rampages. The Counseling Psychologist, 38(1), 69–95.

14.

Dearing

(2018). School security system industry – US market overview. https://technology.ihs.com/600401/school-security-systems-industry-us-market-overview

15.

Devlin

D. N.

Fisher

B. W.

(2021). An examination of school resource officers as an approach to reduce social disturbances in schools: Evidence from a national longitudinal study. Journal of School Violence, 2(2), 228–240.

16.

Fridel

E. E.

(2021). The contextual correlates of school shootings. Justice Quarterly, 38(4), 596–625.

17.

Hamlin

(2021). Are gun ownership rates and regulations associated with firearm incidents in American schools? A forty-year analysis (1980–2019). Journal of Criminal Justice, 76, 101847.

18.

Hamlin

D. E.

(2025). Understanding different forms of gun violence in American schools: An analysis from 1980 to 2019. Children & Schools, 47(1), 47-55.

19.

Holland

K. M.

Hall

J. E.

Wang

Gaylor

E. M.

Johnson

L. L.

Shelby

Simon

T. R.

, & School-Associated Violent Deaths Study Group. (2019). Characteristics of school-associated youth homicides – United States, 1994–2018. MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 68(3), 53–60. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6803a1

20.

Hsieh

H. F.

Lee

D. B.

Zimmerman

M. A.

Pomerantz

Cunningham

M. C.

Messman

Stoddard

S. A.

Grodzinski

A. R.

Heinze

J. E.

(2022). The effectiveness of the Say-Something anonymous reporting system in preventing school violence: A cluster randomized control trial in 19 middle schools. Journal of School Violence, 21(4), 413–428.

21.

Jeynes

W. H.

(2020). Reducing school shootings. Springer.

22.

K-12 School Shooting Database. (2025). Averting school shooting tracker. https://k12ssdb.org/averted-school-shootings

23.

Keierleber

(2018). Inside the $3 billion school security industry: Companies market sophisticated technology to “harden” campuses, but will it make us safe? The 74. https://www.the74million.org/article/inside-the-3-billion-school-security-industry-companies-market-sophisticated-technology-to-harden-campuses-but-will-it-make-us-safe/

24.

Keller

P. H.

Miller

M. K.

(2015). Using the theory of planned behavior to predict crime reporting intent. Applied Psychology in Criminal Justice, 11(3), 193–206.

25.

Kolbe

L. J.

(2020). School gun violence in the United States. Journal of School Health, 90(3), 245–253.

26.

Langman

P. F.

(2009). Why kids kill: Inside the minds of school shooters. Palgrave, MacMillan.

27.

Madfis

(2014). Averting school rampage: Student intervention amid a persistent code of silence. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 12(3), 229–249.

28.

Mowen

T. J.

Freng

(2019). Is more necessarily better? School security and perceptions of safety among students and parents in the United States. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 44(3), 376–394. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-018-9461-7

29.

National Center for Education Statistics [NCES]. (2019). 1999–2000, 2003–04, 2005–06, 2007–08, 2009–10, 2015–16, and 2017–18 School Survey on Crime and Safety (SSOCS), 2000, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2016, and 2018; and Fast Response Survey System (FRSS), “School Safety and Discipline: 2013–14,” FRSS 106, 2014 (This table was prepared August 2019). https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d19/tables/dt19_233.50.asp

30.

National Center for Education Statistics [NCES]. (2022). Safety and Security Practices at Public Schools. Condition of Education. U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences. Retrieved June 28, 2022, from https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/a19

31.

National Center for Education Statistics [NCES]. (2024, June 12). More than one-third of public schools agreed traffic patterns around schools pose a threat to student safety. U.S. Department of Education. https://nces.ed.gov/whatsnew/press_releases/6_12_2024.asp

32.

National Police Foundation. (2021). Averted School Violence (ASV) database: 2021 analysis update. Office of Community Oriented Policing Services. https://www.policinginstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ASV2021AnalysisUpdate.pdf

33.

Nguyen

(2015). Chokepoint: Regulating US student mobility through biometrics. Political Geography, 46, 1–10.

34.

O’Toole

M.E.

(2000). The school shooter: A threat assessment perspective. Critical Incident Response Group. National Centre for the Analysis of Violent Crime, FBI Academy.

35.

Peterson

Densley

Erickson

(2021). Presence of armed school officials and fatal and nonfatal gunshot injuries during mass school shootings, United States, 1980–2019. JAMA Network Open, 4(2), Article e2037394.

36.

Peterson

Erickson

Knapp

Densley

(2021). Communication of intent to do harm preceding mass public shootings in the United States, 1966 to 2019. JAMA Network Open, 4(11), Article e2133073.

37.

Pollack

W. S.

Modzeleski

Rooney

(2008). Prior knowledge of potential school-based violence: Information students learn may prevent a targeted attack. U.S. Secret Service and U.S. Department of Education. https://rems.ed.gov/docs/DOE_BystanderStudy.pdf. https://doi.org/10.1037/e684892012-001

38.

Rocque

Gerdes

Fox

J. A.

Duwe

Clark

(2023). Averting tragedy: An exploration of thwarted mass public shootings relative to completed attacks. Criminal Justice Review, 48(3), 277–299.

39.

Safe2Tell. (2024). Safe2TellColorado: What we do. https://safe2tell.org/what-we-do/

40.

Schweikert

Huth

Gius

(2021). Detecting a copycat effect in school shootings using spatio-temporal panel count models. Contemporary Economic Policy, 39(4), 719–736.

41.

Silva

J. R.

(2022). Mass shooting outcomes: A comparison of completed, attempted, failed, and foiled incidents in America. Deviant Behavior, 43(12), 1487–1506.

42.

Silver

Silva

J. R.

(2022). A sequence analysis of the behaviors and experiences of the deadliest public mass shooters. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 37(23–24), NP23468–NP23494.

43.

Silva

J. R.

Greene-Colozzi

E. A.

(2022). What we know about foiled and failed mass school shootings. Regional Gun Violence Research Consortium, Rockefeller Institute of Government. https://rockinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Failed-Foiled-School-Shootings.pdf

44.

Swezey

J. A.

Thorp

K. A.

(2010). A school shooting plot foiled. Journal of Research on Christian Education, 19(3), 286–312.

45.

Thornberg

Tenenbaum

Varjas

Meyers

Jungert

Vanegas

(2012). Bystander motivation in bullying incidents: To intervene or not to intervene? Western Journal of Emergency Medicine, 13(3), 247.

46.

Turanovic

J. J.

Pratt

T. C.

Kulig

T. C.

Cullen

F. T.

(2022). Confronting school violence: A synthesis of six decades of research. Cambridge University Press.

47.

Unnever

Cornell

(2003). Middle school victims of bullying: Who reports being bullied? Aggressive Behavior, 30, 373–388. https://doi.org/10.1002/ab.20030

48.

U.S. Department of Homeland Security. (2023). Improving school safety through bystander reporting: A toolkit for strengthening K-12 reporting programs. https://www.secretservice.gov/sites/default/files/reports/2023-05/cisa-usss-k-12-bystander-reporting-toolkit-508_final_0.pdf

49.

U.S. Secret Service, National Threat Assessment Center. (2025). Aligning behavioral threat assessment and management with a multi-tiered system of support: Building a continuum of prevention and intervention. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. https://www.secretservice.gov/. . ./Aligning-Behavioral-Threat-Assessment-And-Management-With-A-Multi-Tiered-System-Of-Support.pdf

50.

Vossekuil

Fein

Reddy

Borum

Modzeleski

(2002). The final report and findings of the safe school initiative: Implications for the prevention of school attacks in the United States. U.S. Department of Education, Office of Elementary and Secondary.

51.

Woulfin

Sadler

(2023). A is for Apple, B is for Bulletproof: The racialized fortification of schools. Berkeley Review of Education, 12(2), 60–88.

Stopping Violence Before It Starts: An Analysis of How Potential School Gun Attacks Are Exposed

Abstract

Keywords

Get full access to this article

References