Reported Sexual Assault Incidents in a Metropolitan City: Consideration of Community Characteristics on Case Outcomes

Abstract

This study explores the geographic clustering of sexual assault incidents in a large Midwestern city by analyzing 9 years of police reports alongside U.S. Census tract data. Using geographic analyses methods, the research investigates the relationship between neighborhood characteristics and outcomes in the criminal justice system, including arrests, case submissions to district attorneys, and charges filed. Key findings indicate that socioeconomic factors, such as education levels, unemployment rates, and male population density, significantly predict the spatial distribution and outcomes of reported sexual assaults. Arrests were more likely in cases involving known suspects or current/former romantic partners, while stranger-perpetrated cases showed less progression through the justice system. Spatial analyses revealed clustering in areas with high male density and low education attainment. The study concludes that neighborhood-level factors significantly influence both the occurrence and judicial processing of sexual assaults. The findings enhance our understanding of the spatial dynamics of sexual violence and offer insights into policy development and crime prevention strategies.