Cet article fait le point sur les difficultés spécifiques à la prévision des ventes des nouveaux produits de télécommunications : externalités de réseau, substitution intergénération, valeur d'option. Il expose ensuite un modèle probit de modélisation des décisions d'achat. Au vu des premiers résultats de vente, il apparaît que ce modèle est inadéquat pour la prévision. L'article cherche à améliorer les prévisions ex ante, en utilisant le modèle de Bass,–dont la saturation se révèle trop rapide –, puis le modèle des avalanches.
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