This study uses multilevel negative binomial models to investigate relationships between neighborhood socio-demographics, urban form, roadway characteristics, traffic collisions, injuries, and fatalities on the Philadelphia region’s streets from 2010 to 2014. We pay particular attention to neighborhood population density. Results indicate that streets in denser neighborhoods have fewer overall collisions, injuries, and fatalities. The association with pedestrian safety is mixed and somewhat uncertain across urban areas and model specifications. This study highlights the importance of population density in traffic safety and helps explain some of the variation in findings across studies examining the relationship between urban form and pedestrian safety.
BatesDouglasMächlerMartinBolkerBenWalkerSteve. 2015. “Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using Lme4.”Journal of Statistical Software67 (1): 1–48. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v067.i01.
2.
BlattJ.FurmanS. M.1998. “Residence Location of Drivers Involved in Fatal Crashes.” Accident Analysis & Prevention30 (6): 705–11. doi:10.1016/S0001-4575(98)00014-1.
3.
BordoloiRupjyotiMoteAmitSarkarPartha PratimMallikarjunaC.2013. “Quantification of Land Use Diversity in the Context of Mixed Land Use.” Procedia—Social and Behavioral Sciences104:563–72.
ChatmanDaniel. 2008. “Deconstructing Development Density: Quality, Quantity and Price Effects on Household Non-work Travel.” Transportation Research Part A42 (7): 1008–30.
ChoGihyougRodriguezDanielKhattakAsad. 2009. “The Role of the Built Environment in Explaining Relationships between Perceived and Actual Pedestrian and Bicyclist Safety.” Accident Analysis & Prevention41 (4): 692–702. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.03.008.
8.
ClarkDavid E.2003. “Effect of Population Density on Mortality after Motor Vehicle Collisions.” Accident Analysis & Prevention35 (6): 965–71. doi:10.1016/S0001-4575(02)00104-5.
9.
CliftonKellyKreamer-FultsKandice. 2007. “An Examination of the Environmental Attributes Associated with Pedestrian-Vehicular Crashes near Public Schools.” Accident Analysis & Prevention39 (4): 708–15. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2006.11.003.
10.
CoughenourCourtneyClarkSheilaSinghAshokClawEudoraAbelarJamesHuebnerJoshua. 2017. “Examining Racial Bias as a Potential Factor in Pedestrian Crashes.” Accident Analysis & Prevention98 (Supplement C): 96–100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2016.09.031.
11.
DayKristenAndersonCraigPoweMichaelMcMillanTracyWinnDiane. 2007. “Remaking Minnie Street: The Impacts of Urban Revitalization on Crime and Pedestrian Safety.” Journal of Planning Education and Research26 (3): 315–31. doi:10.1177/0739456X06297257.
12.
de GuevaraFelipe LadrónWashingtonSimonOhJutaek. 2004. “Forecasting Crashes at the Planning Level: Simultaneous Negative Binomial Crash Model Applied in Tucson, Arizona.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board1897:191–99. doi:10.3141/1897-25.
Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. n.d. “2012-2013 Household Travel Survey for the Delaware Valley Region.” https://www.dvrpc.org/Products/14033/.
15.
DelmelleElizabethThillJean-ClaudeHaHoe-Hun. 2012. “Spatial Epidemiologic Analysis of Relative Collision Risk Factors among Urban Bicyclists and Pedestrians.” Transportation39 (2): 433–48. doi:10.1007/s11116-011-9363-8.
16.
DumbaughEricRaeRobert. 2009. “Safe Urban Form: Revisiting the Relationship between Community Design and Traffic Safety.” Journal of the American Planning Association75 (3): 309–29. doi:10.1080/01944360902950349.
17.
DumbaughEricZhangYi. 2013. “The Relationship between Community Design and Crashes Involving Older Drivers and Pedestrians.” Journal of Planning Education and Research33 (1): 83–95. doi:10.1177/0739456X12468771.
EwingReidCerveroRobert. 2010. “Travel and the Built Environment: A Meta-Analysis.” Journal of the American Planning Association76 (3): 265–94. doi:10.1080/01944361003766766.
20.
EwingReidHamidiShimaGraceJames B.2016. “Urban Sprawl as a Risk Factor in Motor Vehicle Crashes.” Urban Studies53 (2): 247–66. doi:10.1177/0042098014562331.
21.
EwingReidSchieberRichardZegeerCharles. 2003. “Urban Sprawl as a Risk Factor in Motor Vehicle Occupant and Pedestrian Fatalities.” The American Journal of Public Health93 (9): 1541–45. doi:10.2105/AJPH.93.9.1541.
22.
FischerKellySternfeldIsabelleMelnickDouglas Sloan. 2013. “Impact of Population Density on Collision Rates in a Rapidly Developing Rural, Exurban Area of Los Angeles County.” Injury Prevention19 (2): 85–91. doi:10.1136/injuryprev-2011-040308.
23.
FuentesCesar MarioHernandezVladimir. 2013. “Spatial Risk Factors for Pedestrian Injury Collisions in Cuidad Juárez, Mexico (2008-2009): Implications for Urban Planning.” International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion20 (2): 169–78. doi:10.1080/17457300.2012.724690.
24.
GelmanAndrewHillJennifer. 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/hierarchical Models. New York: Cambridge University Press.
25.
GlaeserEdward L.KahnMatthew E.2010. “The Greenness of Cities: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development.” Journal of Urban Economics67 (3): 404–18.
26.
GoddardTaraKahnKimberly BarsamianAdkinsArlie. 2015. “Racial Bias in Driver Yielding Behavior at Crosswalks.” Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour33 (Supplement C): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2015.06.002.
27.
GrahamDanielGlaisterStephen. 2003. “Spatial Variation in Road Pedestrian Casualties: The Role of Urban Scale, Density and Land-Use Mix.” Urban Studies40 (8): 1591–1607. doi:10.1080/0042098032000094441.
28.
GuerraErickCerveroRobert. 2011. “Cost of a Ride: The Effects of Densities on Fixed-Guideway Transit Ridership and Costs.” Journal of the American Planning Association77 (3): 267–90. doi:10.1080/01944363.2011.589767.
29.
HarveyChesterAultman-HallLisa. 2015. “Urban Streetscape Design and Crash Severity.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board2500:1–8. doi:10.3141/2500-01.
30.
HwangJinukJohKennethWooAyoung. 2017. “Social Inequalities in Child Pedestrian Traffic Injuries: Differences in Neighborhood Built Environments near Schools in Austin, TX, USA.” Journal of Transport & Health6:40–49. doi:10.1016/j.jth.2017.05.003.
31.
JermprapaiKhajonsakSrinivasanSivaramakrishnan. 2014. “Planning-Level Model for Assessing Pedestrian Safety.”Transportation Research Record2464 (1): 109–17. https://doi.org/10.3141/2464-14.
32.
LaScalaElizabethGerberDanielGrunewaldPaul. 2000. “Demographic and Environmental Correlates of Pedestrian Injury Collisions: A Spatial Analysis.” Accident Analysis & Prevention32 (5): 651–58. doi:10.1016/S0001-4575(99)00100-1.
33.
LeeJae SeungZegrasP. ChristopherBen-JosephEran. 2014. “Safely Active Mobility for Urban Baby Boomers: The Role of Neighborhood Design.” Accident Analysis & Prevention61:153–66. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2013.05.008.
34.
Loukaitou-SiderisAnastasiaLiggettRobinSungHyun-Gun. 2007. “Death on the Crosswalk: A Study of Pedestrian-Automobile Collisions in Los Angeles.” Journal of Planning Education and Research26 (3): 338–51. doi:10.1177/0739456X06297008.
35.
LovegroveGordonSayedTarek. 2006. “Macro-Level Collision Prediction Models for Evaluating Neighbourhood Traffic Safety.” Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering33 (5): 609–21. doi:10.1139/l06-013.
36.
LucyWilliam H.2003. “Mortality Risk Associated with Leaving Home: Recognizing the Relevance of the Built Environment.” American Journal of Public Health93 (9): 1564–69. doi:10.2105/AJPH.93.9.1564.
MeyerJohnKainJohnWohlMartin. 1965. The Urban Transportation Problem. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
39.
Miles-DoanRebeccaThompsonGregory. 1999. “The Planning Profession and Pedestrian Safety: Lessons from Orlando.” Journal of Planning Education and Research18 (3): 211–20. doi:10.1177/0739456X9901800303.
40.
Miranda-MorenoLuisMorencyPatrickEl-GeneidyAhmed. 2011. “The Link between Built Environment, Pedestrian Activity and Pedestrian-Vehicle Collision Occurrence at Signalized Intersections.” Accident Analysis & Prevention43 (5): 1624–34. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2011.02.005.
41.
MorencyPatrickGauvinLisePlanteCélineFournierMichelMorencyCatherine. 2012. “Neighborhood Social Inequalities in Road Traffic Injuries: The Influence of Traffic Volume and Road Design.” American Journal of Public Health102 (6): 1112–19. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2011.300528.
42.
MoudonAnneLinLinHurvitzPhilipReevesPaula. 2008. “Risk of Pedestrian Collision Occurrence: Case Control Study of Collision Locations on State Routes in King County and Seattle, Washington.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board2073:25–38. doi:10.3141/2073-04.
43.
MoudonAnneLinLinJiaoJunfengHurvitzPhilipReevesPaula. 2011. “The Risk of Pedestrian Injury and Fatality in Collisions with Motor Vehicles, a Social Ecological Study of State Routes and City Streets in King County, Washington.” Accident Analysis & Prevention43 (1): 11–24. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.12.008.
NewmanPeterKenworthyJeffrey. 1989. Cities and Automobile Dependence: A Sourcebook. Aldershot: Gower Technical.
47.
NunnSamuelNewbyWilliam. 2015. “Landscapes of Risk: The Geography of Fatal Traffic Collisions in Indiana, 2003 to 2011.” The Professional Geographer67 (2): 269–81. doi:10.1080/00330124.2014.935165.
PushkarevBorisZupanJeffrey. 1977. Public Transportation and Land Use Policy. Bloomington: Indiana University Press.
50.
QuistbergD. AlexHowardEric J.EbelBeth E.MoudonAnne V.SaelensBrian E.HurvitzPhilip M.CurtinJames E.RivaraFrederick P.2015. “Multilevel Models for Evaluating the Risk of Pedestrian-Motor Vehicle Collisions at Intersections and Mid-Blocks.” Accident Analysis & Prevention84:99–111. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2015.08.013.
51.
R Core Team. 2018. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. http://www.R-project.org/.
52.
RiggsWilliamGilderbloomJohn. 2016. “Two-Way Street Conversion: Evidence of Increased Livability in Louisville.” Journal of Planning Education and Research36 (1): 105–18. https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X15593147.
53.
RosénErikSanderUlrich. 2009. “Pedestrian Fatality Risk as a Function of Car Impact Speed.” Accident Analysis & Prevention41 (3): 536–42. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.02.002.
54.
RosénErikStigsonHelenaSanderUlrich. 2011. “Literature Review of Pedestrian Fatality Risk as a Function of Car Impact Speed.” Accident Analysis & Prevention43 (1): 25–33. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2010.04.003.
55.
SaelensBrianSallisJamesFrankLawrence. 2003. “Environmental Correlates of Walking and Cycling: Findings from the Transportation, Urban Design, and Planning Literatures.” Annals of Behavioral Medicine25 (2): 80–91. doi:10.1207/S15324796ABM2502_03.
56.
SiddiquiChowdhuryAbdel-AtyMohamedChoiKeecho. 2012. “Macroscopic Spatial Analysis of Pedestrian and Bicycle Crashes.” Accident Analysis & Prevention45:382–91. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2011.08.003.
57.
StevensMark R.2017. “Does Compact Development Make People Drive Less?”Journal of the American Planning Association83 (1): 7–18. doi:10.1080/01944363.2016.1240044.
58.
StevensonMarkThompsonJasonde SáThiago HérickEwingReidMohanDineshMcClureRodRobertsIanTiwariGeetamGiles-CortiBillieSunXiaoduanWallaceMarkWoodcockJames. 2016. “Land Use, Transport, and Population Health: Estimating the Health Benefits of Compact Cities.” The Lancet388 (10062): 2925–35. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30067-8.
59.
UkkusuriSatishMiranda-MorenoLuisRamaduraiGitakrishnanIsa-TavarezJhael. 2012. “The Role of Built Environment on Pedestrian Crash Frequency.” Safety Science50 (4): 1141–51. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2011.09.012.
60.
U.S. Census Bureau, and Center for Economic Studies. n.d. “Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics.” Local Employment Dynamics. https://lehd.ces.census.gov/.
61.
WangYiyiKockelmanKara M.2013. “A Poisson-Lognormal Conditional-Autoregressive Model for Multivariate Spatial Analysis of Pedestrian Crash Counts across Neighborhoods.” Accident Analysis & Prevention60:71–84. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2013.07.030.
62.
WedagamaD. M. PriyanthaBirdRogerMetcalfeAndrew. 2006. “The Influence of Urban Land-Use on Non-Motorised Transport Casualties.” Accident Analysis & Prevention38 (6): 1049–57. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2006.01.006.
63.
WierMeganWeintraubJuneHumphreysElizabethSetoEdmundBhatiaRajiv. 2009. “An Area-Level Model of Vehicle-Pedestrian Injury Collisions with Implications for Land Use and Transportation Planning.” Accident Analysis & Prevention41 (1): 137–45. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2008.10.001.
64.
YuChia-Yuan. 2014. “Environmental Supports for Walking/Biking and Traffic Safety: Income and Ethnicity Disparities.” Preventive Medicine67 (October): 12–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2014.06.028.
65.
YuChia-YuanXuMinjie. 2018. “Local Variations in the Impacts of Built Environments on Traffic Safety.” Journal of Planning Education and Research38 (3): 314–28. doi:10.1177/0739456X17696035.
66.
YuChia-YuanZhuXuemei. 2016. “Planning for Safe Schools: Impacts of School Siting and Surrounding Environments on Traffic Safety.” Journal of Planning Education and Research36 (4): 476–86. doi:10.1177/0739456X15616460.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
