The Policy Implications of Power Parity

Abstract

Noting that important discoveries linger in the classrooms despite effective specification and empirical support, a bridge from theory to policy is advocated. Policy prescriptions should be made cautiously, but they must be made when failure to disclose scientific findings has serious downside implications. The power transition research project pioneered by AFK Organski is used as an illustration because this perspective systematically and accurately accounts for changes in world politics both before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union^*. The unorthodox policy prescription is that to assure a peaceful transition, the United States must be proactive in setting the status quo conditions prior to the anticipated overtaking by China. Once this obstacle is passed, a long period of global peace should ensue. The specific policies that advance peace include (1) Expand NATO to include Eastern Europe, then Russia to postpone an overtaking by China, or more boldly expand NATO to include China to remove incentives for global war. (2) Restructure the Security Council to reflect the changing power hierarchy and increase its capacity to defuse regional conflicts and limit escalation. (4) Maintain nuclear asymmetry and minimizing nuclear proliferation to minimize the danger of a global and regional nuclear war. (5) Recognize that despite efforts by the United States, regional powerovertaking will continue to generating the necessary structural conditions for serious conflict. In sum, taking advantage of its power preponderance the United States can by timely policy interventions minimize regional instability and solidify the tenuous global stability we now enjoy.