In this paper, I attempt to tease out the implications of expected utility models on
conflict resolution and peace science. I also consider the trade-conflict model of
Polachek (1980) and its extensions, as one example of expected
utility in international relations. I raise three questions concerning the impact of
expected utility: (1) when does trade mitigate conflict?
(2) can trade provoke conflict? (3) can trade
induce cooperation? From a review of empirical findings, I consider the political
content of the trade-conflict model in particular, and of expected utility models,
in general. Subsequently, I discuss two additional questions: (4)
how do exchange norms influence trade and conflict? and (5) what
incentives exist to foster cooperation from trade under expected utility? I advance
the critique that while expected utility underrepresents political actions and
motives, the implicit content of politics in the trade-conflict model is
predominantly realist. Given this tendency, expected utility in conflict resolution
and peace science will invariably be used to model strategic and geostrategic
concerns.
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