The die is cast? The origins of territorial claims & their escalation to military hostilities

Abstract

Under what conditions do territorial claims originate and how do such processes affect military hostility thereafter? We theorize about the impact of four claim origination conditions: (1) pristine; (2) territorial incursion; (3) territorial loss; and (4) national independence. Relying on the original data of claim origination for 209 territorial claims in Asia and Oceania between 1816 and 2001, the empirical analysis demonstrates that territorial claims originating from territorial incursion, territorial loss, and national independence are more likely to experience subsequent military hostilities. The analysis underscores the role of the structure of the international system in the origination and escalation of territorial claims.