Wartime civilian victimization produces a counter-reaction against the perpetrator. However, this effect hinges on the creation of collective memories of wartime events. In many countries, former fighting actors and political elites try to redirect memories of wartime events through denial, propaganda, and co-optation. Previous works have ignored these aspects. I argue that the effect of violence is conditional on the capacity of local communities to build collective memories and bypass those efforts. I test this argument using local-level data from Guatemala. The results show that the effects of state violence on postwar voting depend on prewar exposure to political mobilization.
AriasA (1992) Changing Indian identity: Guatemala’s violent transition to modernity. In: SmithCA (ed.) Guatemalan Indians and the State: 1540 to 1988. Austin, TX: University of Texas Press, pp. 230–257.
2.
ArinoORamos PerezJJKalogirouV, et al. (2012) Global Land Cover Map for 2009 (GlobCover 2009). European Space Agency, Université catholique de Louvain, PANGAEA, 2012.
3.
ArriazaLRoht-ArriazaN (2008) Social repart at the local level: The case of Guatemala. In: McEvoyKMcGregorL (eds) Transitional Justice from Below: Grassroots Activism and the Struggle for Change. Oxford: Hart, pp. 143–166.
4.
BalcellsL (2010) Rivalry and revenge: Violence against civilians in conventional civil wars. International Studies Quarterly54(2): 291–313.
5.
BalcellsL (2012) The consequences of victimization on political identities: Evidence from Spain. Politics & Society40(3): 311–347.
6.
BallPD (1999) AAAS/CIIDH Database of Human Rights Violations in Guatemala (ATV20.1).
7.
BallPDKobrakPSpirerHF (1999) State Violence in Guatemala, 1960–1996: A Quantitative Reflection. Washington, DC: AAAS.
8.
BastaK (2018) The social construction of transformative political events. Comparative Political Studies51(10): 1243–1278.
9.
BatesonR (2013) Order and violence in postwar Guatemala. PhD Dissertation, Yale University.
10.
BatesonR (2017) The socialization of civilians and militia members: Evidence from Guatemala. Journal of Peace Research54(5): 634–647.
11.
BeltránA (2016) A new era of accountability in Guatemala?Current History115(778): 63–67.
12.
BerinskyAJ (2017) Rumors and health care reform: Experiments in political misinformation. British Journal of Political Science47(2): 241–262.
13.
BlackG (1985) Under the gun. NACLA Report on the Americas19(6): 10–47.
14.
BoothJAWadeCJWalkerTW (2010) Understanding Central America: Global Forces, Rebellion, and Change. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
15.
BranA (1985) Guatemala: Organización popular y lucha de clases en el campo. In: González CasanovaP (ed.) Historia Política de los Campesinos Latinoamericanos, volume 2. Mexico City: Siglo XXI, pp. 9–27.
16.
BurrellJL (2013) Maya After War: Conflict, Power, and Politics in Guatemala. Austin, TX: University of Texas Press.
17.
CarmackRM (1988) The story of Santa cruz quiché. In: CarmackRM (ed.) Harvest of Violence: The Maya Indians and the Guatemalan Crisis. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, pp. 39–69.
18.
CEH (1999) Guatemala: Memoria Del Silencio. Guatemala: Comisión para el Esclarecimiento Histórico.
19.
ChamarbagwalaRMoránHE (2011) The human capital consequences of civil war: Evidence from Guatemala. Journal of Development Economics94(1): 41–61.
20.
CollierD (2011) Understanding process tracing. PS: Political Science & Politics44(4): 823–830.
21.
DalySZ (2012) Organizational legacies of violence: Conditions favoring insurgency onset in Colombia, 1964–1984. Journal of Peace Research49(3): 473–491.
22.
DorffC (2017) Violence, kinship networks, and political resilience: Evidence from Mexico. Journal of Peace Research54(4): 558–573.
23.
DriscollJMaliniakD (2016) Did Georgian voters desire military escalation in 2008? Experiments and observations. The Journal of Politics78(1): 265–280.
24.
DyrstadK (2012) After ethnic civil war: Ethno-nationalism in the Western Balkans. Journal of Peace Research49(6): 817–831.
25.
El Imparcial (1974a) Feligreses de comunidades en defensa del Padre Fox. El Imparcial, 19 March 1974. Available at CIRMA archives, Antigua, Guatemala.
26.
El Imparcial (1974b) Huehuetecos preocupados: Tres padres Maryknoll dejan sus parroquias. El Imparcial, 27 March 1974. Available at CIRMA archives, Antigua, Guatemala.
27.
El Imparcial (1974c) Sacerdotes conminados a salir del país por inmiscuirse en política. El Imparcial, 12 March 1974. Available at CIRMA archives, Antigua, Guatemala.
28.
EsparzaM (2018) Silenced Communities: Legacies of Militarization and Militarism in a Rural Guatemalan Town. New York: Berghahn Books.
29.
FallaR (2006) Juventud de una Comunidad maya: Ixcán, Guatemala. Guatemala City: Instituto AVANCSO & Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala.
30.
FinneganW (1992) A Complicated War: The Harrowing of Mozambique. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
31.
FontanaNNanniciniTTabelliniG (2017) Historical Roots of Political Extremism: The Effects of Nazi Occupation of Italy. Working Paper.
32.
ForsterC (2001) The Time of Freedom: Campesino Workers in Guatemala’s October Revolution. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
33.
Garrard-BurnettV (2010) Terror in the Land of the Holy Spirit: Guatemala Under General Efrain Rios Montt, 1982–1983. New York: Oxford University Press.
34.
GlaurdićJVukovićV (2016) Voting after war: Legacy of conflict and the economy as determinants of electoral support in Croatia. Electoral Studies42: 135–145.
35.
GreenL (1995) Living in a state of fear. In: NordstromCRobbenACGM (eds) Fieldwork Under Fire: Contemporary Studies of Violence and Survival. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press Berkeley, pp. 105–127.
36.
HandyJ (1994) Revolution in the Countryside: Rural Conflict and Agrarian Reform in Guatemala, 1944–1954. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press.
37.
KobrakP (2013) The long war in Colotenango: Guerrillas, army, and civil patrols. In: McAllisterCNelsonDM (eds) War by Other Means: Aftermath in Post-Genocide Guatemala. Durham, NC: Duke University Press, pp. 218–240.
38.
Le BotY (1992) La Guerre En Terre Maya: Communauté, Violence et Modernité Au Guatemala (1970–1992). Paris: Karthala.
39.
LevensonDT (2013) Adiós niño: The Gangs of Guatemala City and the Politics of death. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
40.
LöfvingS (2005) Silence & the politics of representing rebellion: On the emergence of the neutral Maya in Guatemala. In: RichardsP (ed.) No Peace, No War: An Anthropology of Contemporary Armed Conflicts. Oxford: James Currey and Ohio University Press, pp. 77–97.
41.
LupuNPeisakhinL (2017) The legacy of political violence across generations. American Journal of Political Science61(4): 836–851.
42.
LyallJBlairGImaiK (2013) Explaining support for combatants during wartime: A survey experiment in Afghanistan. American Political Science Review107(4): 679–705.
43.
LyonsRFMickelsonKDSullivanMJ, et al. (1998) Coping as a communal process. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships15(5): 579–605.
44.
ManzB (1988) The transformation of La Esperanza, an Ixcán Village. In: CarmackRM (ed.) Harvest of Violence: The Maya Indians and the Guatemalan Crisis. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, pp. 39–69.
45.
ManzB (2004) Paradise in Ashes: A Guatemalan Journey of Courage, Terror, and Hope. Oakland, CA: University of California Press.
MolinaF (2014) Lies of our fathers: Memory and politics in the basque country under the franco dictatorship, 1936–68. Journal of Contemporary History49(2): 296–319.
48.
NelsonDM (2009) Reckoning: The Ends of War in Guatemala. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
49.
OsorioJSchubigerLIWeintraubM (2018) Disappearing dissent? Repression and state consolidation in Mexico. Journal of Peace Research55(2): 252–266.
50.
OsorioJSchubigerLIWeintraubM (2021) Legacies of resistance: Mobilization against organized crime in Mexico. Comparative Political Studies54(9): 1565–1596.
51.
PalomaresJM (2004) La depuración de la historia. In: SilvaEEstebanACastánJSalvadorP (eds) La Memoria de Los Olvidados: Un Debate Sobre El Silencio de La Represión Franquista. Valladolid: Ámbito, pp. 37–43.
52.
PayerasM (1981) Los Días de La Selva. La Habana: Casa de las Américas.
53.
PeacockSCBeltránA (2003) Hidden powers: Illegal armed groups in post conflict Guatemala and the forces behind them. Special Report, Washington Office on Latin America, Washington, DC.
54.
PechenkinaAOArgoN (2020) How do civilians assign blame and praise amidst civil conflict?Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression12(4): 243–267.
55.
RobbenACGM (1995) Politics of truth and emotion among victims and perpetrators of violence. In: GreenLRobbenACGM (eds) Fieldwork Under Fire: Contemporary Studies of Violence and Survival. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press Berkeley, pp. 85–105.
56.
RozenasAZhukovY (2019) Mass repression and political loyalty: Evidence from Stalin’s “Terror by Hunger”. American Political Science Review113(2): 569–583.
57.
RozenasASchutteSZhukovY (2017) The political legacy of violence: The long-term impact of Stalin’s repression in Ukraine. The Journal of Politics79(4): 1147–1161.
58.
RutkowE (2019) The Longest Line on the Map: The United States, the Pan-American Highway, and the Quest to Link the Americas. New York: Scribner.
59.
RydgrenJ (2007) The power of the past: A contribution to a cognitive sociology of ethnic conflict. Sociological Theory25(3): 225–244.
60.
Sáenz de TejadaR (2004) ¿Víctimas o Vencedores? Una Aproximación al Movimiento de Los Ex PAC. Guatemala City: FLACSO.
61.
SchirmerJ (1998) The Guatemalan Military Project: A Violence Called Democracy. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.
62.
SchonJ (2021) How narratives and evidence influence rumor belief in conflict zones: Evidence from Syria. Perspectives on Politics19(2): 539–552.
63.
Segeplán (2019) Sistema Nacional de Información Territorial (Segeplán).
64.
SeoigheR (2017) War, Denial and Nation-Building in Sri Lanka. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
65.
ShesterininaA (2016) Collective threat framing and mobilization in civil War. American Political Science Review110(3): 411–427.
66.
SilvermanD (2019) What shapes civilian beliefs about violent events? Experimental evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Conflict Resolution63(6): 1460–1487.
67.
SmithCA (1990) Class position and class consciousness in an Indian community: Totonicapan in the 1970s. In: SmithCA (ed.) Guatemalan Indians and the State: 1540 to 1988. Austin, TX: University of Texas Press, pp. 205–229.
68.
StollD (1999) Rigoberta Menchu and the Story of All Poor Guatemalans. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
69.
SullivanCM (2012) Blood in the village: A local-level investigation of state massacres. Conflict Management and Peace Science29(4): 373–396.
70.
TavitsM (2013) Post-Communist Democracies and Party Organization. New York: Cambridge University Press.
71.
TSE (2019) Tribunal Supremo Electoral de Guatemala. Memorias Electorales.
72.
ViaeneL (2011) Voices from the shadows: The role of cultural contexts in transitional justice processes: Maya Q’eqchi’perspectives from post-conflict Guatemala. PhD thesis, Ghent University.
73.
VogtMSáenz de TejadaR (2019) The Political Futility of Counterinsurgency: State Violence and Electoral Support for the Left in Guatemala.
74.
WeintraubMVargasJFFloresTE (2015) Vote choice and legacies of violence: Evidence from the 2014 Colombian presidential elections. Research & Politics2(2): 2053168015573348.
75.
WittenbergJ (2006) Crucibles of Political Loyalty: Church Institutions and Electoral Continuity in Hungary. New York: Cambridge University Press.
76.
WoodEJ (2003) Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
77.
ZhukovYMTalibovaR (2018) Stalin’s terror and the long-term political effects of mass repression. Journal of Peace Research55(2): 267–283.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
